Daily Markets

• Most Asian currencies weakened on Thursday, with the yen hitting a near one-month low after the Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady and flagged a cautious outlook. But the biggest point of pressure on Asian currencies was a stronger dollar, as the greenback rallied to an over two-year high after the Federal Reserve slashed its outlook for interest rate cuts in the coming year. The Japanese yen weakened on Thursday, extending overnight weakness after the BOJ kept rates steady in a nearly unanimous decision. The BOJ kept rates steady and flagged a cautious outlook for 2025, amid signs of increasing inflation and sluggish Japanese economic growth. While the BOJ’s decision was in line with a Reuters poll, it still disappointed some investors holding out for a December hike. The central bank had raised rates twice this year in a historic pivot away from ultra-loose policy. Analysts still expect the BOJ to raise rates further, potentially in January or March. The dollar index and dollar index futures rose slightly in Asian trade after racing to an over two-year high on Wednesday. The greenback’s rally was spurred largely by the Fed. While the central bank did cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, it signaled a substantially slower pace of rate cuts in 2025, amid sticky inflation and strength in the U.S. economy. The Fed effectively halved its rate cut outlook for 2025, now predicting only two 25 basis point cuts, as compared to prior expectations for four cuts. Broader Asian currencies were nursing steep losses against the U.S. dollar, following hawkish signals from the Fed. A slower pace of rate cuts bodes poorly for Asian markets, given that rate differentials between the dollar and regional currencies are likely to favor the greenback in the coming months. The Indian rupee was among the worst performers in recent sessions, with the USD/INR pairing rising to a new record high above 85 rupees on Thursday.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Wednesday its intraday high of US$2651.59/oz and low of $2583.46/oz. Gold is down by 2.29% at US$2585.38oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2624-2716 keeping stop loss closing above 2716, targeting 2600-2585 and 2574-2560-2540-2519. Buy in between 2600-2550 with risk below 2550 targeting 2624-2650-2669 and 2684-2694-2705.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$30.55/oz and low of US$29.28/oz settle down by 3.87% at US$29.33/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 29.30.40-27.50, targeting 31.30-32.10-32.60 and 33.10-33.80-34.20 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 27.00. Sell in between 29.60-34.30 with a stop loss above 35.00 targeting 29.10-28.60 and 28.10-27.60.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Wednesday an intra‐day high of US$70.72/bbl, an intraday low of US$69.32/bbl, and settled down by 0.481% to close at US$69.42/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 70.90-76.85 with stop loss at 77.00; targeting 69.20-68.50-67.50 and 66.90-66.10-65.05. Buy above 69.60-64.05 with risk daily closing below 64.00, targeting 70.90 and 71.65-73.00-73.90.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD of Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.03433/EUR, a high of US$1.0512/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.173% to close at US$1.0351/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0540-1.0840, targeting 1.0450-1.0400-1.0340 and 1.0290-1.0210 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400. Buy above 1.0470-1.0210 with risk below 1.0210 targeting 1.0490-1.0540-1.0600 and 1.0660-1.0700-1.0790.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday an intra‐day low of US$1.2599/GBP, a high of US$1.2728/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.596% to close at US$1.2707/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2650 -1.2380 with a target of 1.2750-1.2800.1.2890 and 1.2930-1.2990-1.3050 with a stop loss closing below 1.2380. Sell in between 1.2750-1.3260 with targets at 1.2670-1.2590-1.2520 and 1.2450-1.2380-1.2290 with a stop loss of 1.3200.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of JPY153.25/USD an intraday high of 154.85/USD, and settled the day up by 0.805% at JPY154.48/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (155.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 155.50-159.50 with risk above 159.00 targeting 154.30-153.80-153.00 and 152.10-151.50-149.70. Long positions above 154.30-147.00 with targets of 155.50 and 156.00-157.00 with stops below 147.00.