Daily Markets

• Most Asian currencies nursed losses on Thursday, while the dollar remained close to one-year highs amid growing doubts over whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December. Speculation over expansionary policies under a Donald Trump presidency was a key boost to the dollar in recent weeks, as was sticky inflation data for October, along with less dovish signals from the Fed. Sentiment in Asia was also quashed by uncertainty over more Chinese stimulus measures, while broader risk appetite waned in the face of heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine. The dollar index and dollar index futures steadied in Asian trade after a strong overnight session. The greenback was buoyed by increased caution over future interest rate cuts by the Fed. Traders were seen pricing in a 53.3% chance for a 25 basis point cut in December, much lower than the 85.7% chance seen a day ago, CME Fedwatch showed. The shift in expectations came after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week that resilience in the U.S. economy gave the central bank more time to consider future rate cuts. His comments were also preceded by data showing sticky inflation in October. Trump’s election win had also underpinned the dollar since early-November, with the president-elect expected to enact more inflationary policies, given his protectionist stance towards trade and immigration. U.S. purchasing managers index data is due this week and is set to provide more cues on the world's largest economy. Jobless claims data is also due later on Thursday, while several Fed officials are set to speak in the coming days. Asian currencies were pressured by the prospect of relatively higher U.S. interest rates, as well potential trade headwinds from a Trump presidency. The Chinese yuan was among the worst hit by these concerns, given that Trump has vowed to impose steep import tariffs on the country. The yuan’s USDCNY pair moved little on Thursday, and was close to near four-month highs. Underwhelming signals on Chinese stimulus also pressured the yuan. The Japanese yen firmed slightly on Thursday, but was also nursing steep losses against the dollar through October and November. The USDJPY pair fell 0.3% after crossing the 155 yen level this week PMI readings from several major Asian economies, including Japan, China, Australia and India are due in the coming days, offering up more cues on business activity in the region. Japanese consumer inflation is also on tap this Friday.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$2655.27/oz and low of $2618.76/oz. Gold is up by 0.683% at US$2649.89/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2660-2700 keeping stop loss closing above 2700, targeting 2579-2560-2540-2519 and 2510-2500-2484.Buy in between 2639-2489 with risk below 2480 targeting 2624-2639-2650 and 2662-2670.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$31.31/oz and low of US$30.75/oz settle down by 1.114% at US$30.83/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 29.90-27.50, targeting 30.70-31.30-32.10 and 32.60-33.10-33.80-34.20 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 26.00. Sell in between 30.70-33.30 with a stop loss above 33.00 targeting29.70-29.10 and 28.65-28.00.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$69.88/bbl, an intraday low of US$66.58/bbl, and settled down by 1.130% to close at US$68.97/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 69.50-76.85 with stop loss at 77.00; targeting 66.90-66.10-65.05 and 64.7-64.00. Buy above 68.50-64.05 with risk daily closing below 64.00, targeting 69.20-70.00-70.90 and 71.65-73.00-73.90.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD of Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.0609/EUR, a high of US$1.0609/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.473% to close at US$1.0542/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0600-1.0960, targeting 1.0600 and 1.0540-1.0490 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400. Buy above 1.0540-1.0485 with risk below 1.0450 targeting 1.0660-1.0700-1.0790 and 1.0870-1.0910-1.0960.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2630/GBP, a high of US$1.2713/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.094% to close at US$1.2650/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2650-1.2380 with a target of 1.2750-1.2800.1.2890 and 1.2920-1.2990-1.3120 and 1.3210 with a stop loss closing below 1.2380. Sell in between 1.2700-1.3260 with targets at 1.2690-1.2600-1.2520 and 1.2450-1.2380 with a stop loss of 1.3300.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of JPY154.51/USD an intraday high of 155.87/USD, and settled the day up by 0.106% at JPY155.39/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (155.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 155.00-159.50 with risk above 159.00 targeting 154.60 and 153.70-153.00-152.10. Long positions above 154.00-150.00 with targets of 156.00-157.00-157.80 and 158.40-159.00 with stops below 150.00.