Daily Markets

• The U.S. dollar touched a 10-week high on Monday in thin trading, extending its weeks-long bullish run sparked by data showing a modestly slowing economy that lined up with bets for moderate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Volume was light with several markets, including Japan and Canada, closed on Monday. The U.S. bond market is shut for Indigenous Peoples' Day. The greenback rose against the Chinese yuan after China's weekend stimulus announcements disappointed investors The European Central Bank is expected to lower rates this week, but the Fed remains the market's focus. The U.S. rate futures market has priced in an 87% chance the Fed will ease by 25 bps at the November meeting, and a 13% chance it will pause and keep the fed funds rate at the target range between 4.75% and 5%, according to LSEG estimates. The Fed slashed interest rates by an aggressive 50 basis points at its last policy meeting about four weeks ago. For the rest of the year, the futures market expects about 45 bps in cuts and another 98.5 bps in rate reductions for 2025. That was way down from the roughly 200 bps in cuts that the market implied before the September Fed meeting and the blockbuster U.S. nonfarm payrolls report that reset easing expectations to a much shallower cycle than previously thought. Expectations for smaller interest rate cuts have supported the dollar in the last few weeks, but that adjustment is likely on its last legs, analysts said. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Monday reinforced the market's thinking on the U.S. central bank's easing policy. In the euro zone, the euro fell for the 11th time in 12 sessions as investors moved to price in a 25 bp interest rate cut from the ECB with near-certainty at its Thursday meeting as data pointed to deteriorating euro zone activity. Current indicators indicate continued weakness in the German economy in the past quarter, the economy ministry said in its monthly report on Monday. Meanwhile, credit ratings agency Fitch revised France's outlook to "negative" from "stable" on Friday, citing increases in fiscal policy and political risks. Next on the market's radar are U.S. retail sales and jobless claims data, and the ECB's policy review, all due on Thursday. Without quantifying the proposed fiscal stimulus, Finance Minister Lan Fo'an told a press conference there will be more "counter-cyclical measures" this year The onshore yuan has fallen nearly 1% against the dollar since Sept. 24, when the People's Bank of China kicked off China's most aggressive stimulus measures since the pandemic.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$2666.68/oz and low of $2643.07/oz. Gold is down by 0.288% at S$2648.33/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2662-2720 keeping stop loss closing above 2720, targeting 2650-2634-2620 and 2610-2600-2584-2575. Buy in between 2650-2560 with risk below 2560 targeting 2662-2669-2690 and 2700-2720.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$31.53/oz and low of US$30.72/oz settle down by 0.109% at US$31.15/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 30.90-25.90, targeting 31.30-31.90-32.50 and 32.90-33.50-34.00-34.70 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 26.00. Sell in between 31.40-34.70 with a stop loss above 35.00 targeting 30.40 and 29.80-29.50-28.90.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$74.33/bbl, an intraday low of US$71.33/bbl, and settled down by 4.04% to close at US$71.46/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 70.90.00-76.85 with stop loss at 77.00; targeting 70.00-69.20-68.50 and 67.90-67.00. Buy above 70.00.00-65.80 with risk daily closing below 65.00, targeting70.90-71.65-72.45 and 73.00-74.10-75.76-76.50.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD of Monday made an intraday low of US$1.0887/EUR, a high of US$1.0936/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.1848% to close at US$1.0907/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0960-1.1400, targeting 1.0960 and 1.0850- 1.0785 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0910-1.0785 with risk below 1.0700 targeting 1.1150-1.1190-1.1250 and 1.1290-1.1340-1.1400.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3040/GBP, a high of US$1.3071/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.053% to close at US$1.3058/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3040-1.2690 with a target of 1.3120-1.3210-1.3300 and 1.3390-1.3450-1.3500 with a stop loss closing below 1.3010. Sell in between 1.3120-1.3660 with targets at 1.3040 -1.2940-1.2890 and 1.2800-1.2740-1.2690 with a stop loss of 1.3560.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday made an intra‐day low of JPY148.95/USD an intraday high of 149.97/USD, and settled the day up by 0.472% at JPY149.73/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (155.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 149.50-151.50 with risk above 152.00 targeting 147.80-147.00-146.00 and 145.10-143.90-143.00-142.20. Long positions above 148.50-140.00 with targets of 148.50-149.20-150.00 and 151.10-151.50 with stops below 140.00.