Daily Markets

• The U.S. dollar was modestly up Tuesday, staying close to its nearly two-week high as with investor attention turns to the forthcoming U.S. jobs report expected at the week's end. The report, set to be released on Friday, is anticipated to play a crucial role in shaping the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, especially after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a shift from focusing on inflation to preventing job losses. Currently, there is a 33% chance being ascribed to a 50 basis points cut this month, with a quarter-point reduction fully expected. This represents a slight shift from the previous week when the probability for a larger cut stood at 36%. Markets have been anticipating a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a 25 basis point reduction already factored into expectations for several weeks. The strength of the dollar earlier reflected this sentiment as it reached its highest level since August 20, propelled by an increase in long-term Treasury yields to their highest point since mid-August. This rise in yields followed inflation data that suggested the Fed might opt for a smaller rate cut. The U.S. economy's resilience is further underscored by recent gross domestic product figures, which suggest that the Federal Reserve has the leeway to moderate its policy easing. Despite this, traders are still betting on the likelihood of a rate cut from the Fed. The outcome of the upcoming jobs report will likely have a significant impact on the dollar's trajectory in the near term. “A stronger-than-expected payroll number and lower unemployment rate would likely provide markets with greater confidence that growth risks have subsided, paving the way for equity valuations to remain elevated and a potential catch-up in some other markets/stocks that have lagged,” Morgan Stanley economists said in a note.

Gold – XAU

Gold on made Monday its intraday high of US$2507.14/oz and low of $2489.98/oz. Gold is down by 0.119% at S$2499.36/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2520-2560 keeping stop loss closing above 2560, targeting 2,490-2,484-2,470 and 2459-2431-2418. Buy in between 2490-2430 with risk below 2430 targeting 2512-2,520-2531 and 2545-2560.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$28.95/oz and low of US$28.30/oz settle down by 1.012% at US$28.51/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 28.40-25.90, targeting 29.00-29.70 and 30.50-31.10- 31.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 25.00. Sell in between 29.00-31.00 with a stop loss above 31.50 targeting 28.90-28.00-27.60 and 27.10-26.50-26.00.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$73.86/bbl, an intraday low of US$72.40/bbl, and settled up by 0.607% to close at US$73.48/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 73.40-80.00 with stop loss at 80.00; targeting 72.60-72.00-71.30 and 70.60-70.00. Buy above 72.60-70.00 with risk daily closing below 70.00, targeting 73.10-73.90-75.10 and 76.00-76.60-77.15.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1041/EUR, a high of US$1.1076/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.245% to close at US$1.1070/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1100-1.1400, targeting 1.1100-1.1020-1.0960 and 1.0850- 1.0785with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.1020-1.0785 with risk below 1.0400 targeting 1.1100-1.1190-1.1250 and 1.1290-1.1340-1.1400.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3119/GBP, a high of US$1.3154/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.156% to close at US$1.3142/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3120-1.2600 with a target of 1.3200-1.3310 and 1.3390-1.3450 with a stop loss closing below 1.2600. Sell in between 1.3190-1.3410 with targets at 1.3150-1.3100-1.3040 and 1.2950-1.2890-1.2790 with a stop loss of 1.3100.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made an intra‐day low of JPY145.77/USD an intraday high of 145.77/USD, and settled the day up by 0.156% at JPY146.82/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (155.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 146.90-150.00 with risk above 150.00 targeting 146.00-145.40-144.60 and 144.20-145.00-144.20. Long positions above 146.00-141.00 with targets of 146.90-147.50-148.00 and 148.90-149.50-150.10-151.00 with sto42ps below 146.00.