Daily Markets

• The dollar hovered near a two-week high to the yen after its biggest one-day gain against major peers in four weeks as firm U.S. economic data all but eliminated fears about a recession. The greenback was especially strong against the Japanese currency thanks to a surge in Treasury yields as traders pared back bets the Federal Reserve would be forced into aggressive easing next month. Risk-sensitive currencies like sterling were firm as the improved economic outlook spurred a rally in equities. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major peers including the yen, sterling and euro, was little changed at 103.20 after rallying 0.41% overnight, the most since July 18. The dollar eased slightly to 149.11 yen, but remained close to Thursday's high of 149.40, a level last seen on Aug. 2. The Commerce Department said retail sales rose 1.0% last month, topping forecasts for a 0.3% gain. Separate figures showed 227,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, fewer than the 235,000 expected. Traders are convinced the Fed will slash rates on Sept. 18, but had debated the size of the reduction. Odds currently stand at 25% for a super-sized 50 basis-point cut, down from 36% a day earlier, according to the CME Group's (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch Tool. Sterling edged up slightly to $1.2859, building on its overnight 0.21% advance. The British currency got an additional boost from solid GDP figures on Thursday.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$2469.79/oz and low of $2432.05/oz. Gold is up by 0.352% at S$2456.17/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2458-2520 keeping stop loss closing above 2520, targeting 2459-2431-2418 and 2400-2384-2370. Buy in between 2442-2370 with risk below 2370 targeting 2470-2484 and 2490-2500-2512.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$28.49/oz and low of US$27.46/oz settle up by 2.94% at US$28.33 /oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 28.0-25.90, targeting 28.00-28.50-29.70 and 30.50-31.10- 31.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 25.00. Sell in between 28.50-31.00 with a stop loss above 31.50 targeting 28.00-27.60 and 27.10-26.50-26.00.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$77.34/bbl, an intraday low of US$75.68/bbl, and settled up by 0.888% to close at US$76.88/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 77.50-82.00 with stop loss at 82.00; targeting 75.10-74.50-73.90 and 73.10-72.50-71.90-71.00. Buy above 76.10-71.00 with risk daily closing below 71.00, targeting 78.10-78.75-79.80 and 80.40-80.85-81.50.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.0948/EUR, a high of US$1.1014/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.361% to close at US$1.0971/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0980-1.1100, targeting 1.0700-1.0640-with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0900-1.0450 with risk below 1.0400 targeting 1.0845-1.0890 and 1.1020-1.1105-1.1145.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2797/GBP, a high of US$1.2870/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.2799% to close at US$1.2847/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2800-1.2500 with a target of 1.2890-1.2990-1.3040 and 1.3100-1.3150 with a stop loss closing below 1.2050. Sell in between 1.2850-1.3100 with targets at 1.2790-1.2720 and 1.2670-1.2610-1.2500 with a stop loss of 1.3100.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday made an intra‐day low of JPY147.04/USD an intraday high of 149.38/USD, and settled the day up by 1.33% at JPY149.24/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (155.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 148.90-150.00 with risk above 150.00 targeting 148.00-147.20-145.00 and 144.20-143.60-142.90. Long positions above 147.00-141.00 with targets of 148.90-149.50 and 150.10-151.00 with stops below 146.00.