Daily Markets

• The U.S. dollar edged higher Monday, in calm trading with traders looking to the release of key inflation data later in the week for clues of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions. The dollar received a boost late last week after stronger-than-expected weekly U.S. jobs data led traders to pare bets for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. The greenback had struggled at the start of the week, driven by worries over the U.S. economy and the Bank of Japan's hawkishness. Fed fund futures imply a 49% chance of a half-point rate cut in September, after climbing as high as 100% at one point last week. This uncertainty leaves markets highly vulnerable to data and events, with the U.S. consumer price index on Wednesday looming particularly large. July CPI data is expected to show that that inflation continued to edge closer to the Fed’s 2% annual target, with forecasts tipping annual core inflation to fall a tick to 3.2%, the lowest since April 2021. The pair has seen calm trading at the start of the week, with the eurozone data calendar very quiet this week and little in the way of European Central Bank speakers scheduled. This leaves the market to focus on the first revision to the second quarter eurozone GDP data. The European Central Bank started cutting interest rates in June, and many expect the policymakers to agree to another reduction in September. GBP/USD traded flat at 1.2759 at the start of a busy U.K. economic data calendar this week, as investors look for clues as to whether the Bank of England will continue its rate-cutting cycle next month. The BoE cut rates for the first time since 2020 at the start of this month and markets are currently pricing in a roughly 33% chance of another quarter point cut at its September meeting. Data on wage growth is due out on Tuesday, followed a day later by inflation figures, which will be closely watched for indications of lingering price pressures.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$2472.80/oz and low of $2423.70/oz. Gold is up by 1.735% at S$2471.77/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2464-2520 keeping stop loss closing above 2520, targeting 2459-2431-2418 and 2400-2384-2370. Buy in between 2431-2370 with risk below 2370 targeting 2470-2484 and 2490-2500-2512.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$28.02/oz and low of US$27.20/oz settle up by 1.94% at US$27.93/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 27.00-25.90, targeting 28.00-28.50-29.70 and 30.50-31.10- 31.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 25.00. Sell in between 27.90-31.00 with a stop loss above 31.50 targeting 27.60 and 27.10-26.50-26.00.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$78.75/bbl, an intraday low of US$75.59/bbl, and settled up by 3.077% to close at US$78.21/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 78.50-82.00 with stop loss at 82.00; targeting 75.10-74.50-73.90 and 73.10-72.50-71.90-71.00. Buy above 77.10-71.00 with risk daily closing below 71.00, targeting 78.10-78.75-79.80 and 80.40-80.85-81.50.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.0909/EUR, a high of US$1.10938/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.178% to close at US$1.0930/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0960-1.1100, targeting 1.0700-1.0640-with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0900-1.0450 with risk below 1.0400 targeting 1.0845-1.0890 and 1.1020-1.1105-1.1145.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2745/GBP, a high of US$1.2793/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.102% to close at US$1.2761/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2760-1.2500 with a target of 1.2830-1.2890-1.2990-1.3040 and 1.3100-1.3150 with a stop loss closing below 1.2050. Sell in between 1.2800-1.3100 with targets at 1.2720 and 1.2670-1.2610-1.2500 with a stop loss of 1.2950.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made an intra‐day low of JPY146.47/USD an intraday high of 148.21/USD, and settled the day up by 0.442% at JPY147.15/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (155.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 147.90-150.00 with risk above 150.00 targeting 145.00-144.20-143.60 and 142.90-141.70-141.00. Long positions above 146.00-141.00 with targets of 146.00-146.45-146.90 and 147.50-148.40-149.00 with stops below 146.00.