Daily Markets

• The dollar added to losses on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady but opened the door to reducing borrowing costs as soon as its next meeting in September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in comments after the statement from its two-day meeting that an interest rate cut could be on the table as early as September if inflation moves down in line with expectations, growth remains reasonably strong and the labor market remains as it is. But he also said that the U.S. central bank remains data dependent and has not made any decisions about future meetings. Traders have fully priced in a September rate cut, which may take pressure of the Fed to signal a certain move then. Traders are also expecting a second and possible third cut by year-end. The next major U.S. economic release that is likely to drive Fed policy will be Friday’s government jobs report for July. It is expected to show that employers added 175,000 jobs during the month, according to the median estimate of economists polled by Reuters. The ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday showed that private payrolls rose by 122,000 jobs this month, below economists' expectations for 150,000 in jobs gains. The Japanese yen hit a four-month high against the dollar on Wednesday after the Bank of Japan raised rates to the highest since 2008 and indicated that more hikes may follow. The BOJ raised the overnight call rate target to 0.25% from 0-0.1%, the largest increase since 2007. Japan's rate increase came just months after the BOJ ended eight years of negative interest rates as the bank's chief seeks to dismantle his predecessor's unorthodox policies. The Japanese central bank also announced plans to halve its monthly Japanese government bond (JGB) purchases to 3 trillion yen as of January-March 2026. The yen has rallied since hitting a 38-year low of 161.96 against the greenback on July 3, in large part boosted by interventions by Japanese authorities. Traders unwinding bets that were short the yen and long the dollar has added to the move. Japanese authorities spent 5.53 trillion yen ($36.8 billion) intervening in the foreign exchange market this month to boost the currency, official data showed on Wednesday. Markets abandoned bets of a further rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia after the data. Euro zone inflation unexpectedly edged up in July, data showed on Wednesday, although a widely watched gauge of price growth in the services sector eased. Sterling options volatility rose to its highest in almost a year, reflecting the degree of nervousness ahead of Thursday's Bank of England rate decision where markets are pricing in 66% odds of a rate cut.
• Gold prices steadied in Asian trade on Thursday after surging close to record highs in the prior session after the Federal Reserve flagged the possibility of an interest rate cut in September. The yellow metal also saw increased safe haven demand amid heightened concerns over a bigger war in the Middle East, after the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Bullion prices rose sharply on Wednesday, coming close to a record high of $2,483.78 an ounce after the Fed kept interest rates steady, as widely expected. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell flagged more progress towards lower inflation and a cooling labor market, and explicitly raised the possibility of a September rate cut on more encouraging data. While the Fed still has some more inflation and labor market readings to contend with before its next meeting, markets were seen almost entirely pricing in a 25 basis point cut in September, CME Fedwatch showed. Lower rates bode well for gold, given that they reduce the opportunity cost of investing in non-yielding assets. Focus this week is also on key nonfarm payrolls data for July, due on Friday. Purchasing managers index data from China pointed to a broad slowdown in manufacturing activity. Caixin manufacturing PMI data showed an unexpected contraction in the sector through July, coming in line with a government reading from Wednesday. The Caixin data served as a pain point for sentiment towards China, given that the reading has usually painted a more favorable picture of the economy than the government PMI.
• Oil prices rose during Asian trade on Thursday, extending gains from the previous session, after the killing of a Hamas leader in Iran raised the threat of a wider Middle East conflict and concern over its impact on oil. The most active contracts on both benchmarks jumped about 4% in the previous session. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in the Iranian capital Tehran on Wednesday. His death came less than 24 hours after the most senior military commander of Lebanon-based Hezbollah was killed in an Israeli strike in Beirut. The killings fuelled concern that the 10-month-old war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas was turning into a wider Middle East war, which could lead to disruption in oil supply from the region. Dhar said markets will be worried about Iran's ability to escalate tension via its control of the Strait of Hormuz. Also pushing up prices was a set of data releases from the U.S., the world's biggest oil consumer, and a weaker dollar. Robust export demand pushed U.S. crude oil stockpiles lower by 3.4 million barrels in the week ended July 26 to 433 million barrels, data from the U.S. EIA showed on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index extended losses on Thursday from the previous session, after the Federal Reserve held interest rates but left the door open for a cut in September. A weaker dollar can boost oil demand from investors holding other currencies. In the long term, investors are not confident of Chinese demand, said Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva, adding that this concern will continue to limit the upside in oil prices. Official data from China on Wednesday showed that manufacturing activity slipped to a five-month low in July as factories grappled with falling new orders and low prices. A private sector survey on Thursday also showed China's manufacturing activity in July shrank for the first time in nine months as new orders declined.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$2450.77/oz and low of $2403.76/oz. Gold is up by 1.517% at S$2447.08/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2450-2520 keeping stop loss closing above 2520, targeting 2431-2418-2400 and 2384-2370-2362. Buy in between 2431-2350 with risk below 2350 targeting 2,450-2470-2484 and 2490-2500.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$29.01/oz and low of US$28.22/oz settle up by 2.196% at US$28.98/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 28.60-25.90, targeting 28.00-28.50-29.70 and 30.50-31.10- 31.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 25.00. Sell in between 28.90-31.00 with a stop loss above 31.50 targeting 28.50-28.00-27.60 and 27.10-26.50-26.00.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$78.10/bbl, an intraday low of US$74.72/bbl, and settled up by 4.405% to close at US$78.04/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 79.00-85.29 with stop loss at 85.30; targeting 74.50-73.90-73.10 and 72.50-71.90. Buy above 77.00-73.50 with risk daily closing below 73.00, targeting 76.50-77.40-78.00 and 79.20-80.40-82.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.0801/EUR, a high of US$1.0848/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.097% to close at US$1.0824/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0900-1.1100, targeting 1.0700-1.0640-with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0810-1.0450 with risk below 1.0400 targeting 1.0845-1.0890 and 1.1020-1.1105-1.1145.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2819/GBP, a high of US$1.2863/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.159% to close at US$1.2854/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2830-1.2500 with a target of 1.2990-1.3040 and 1.3100-1.3150 with a stop loss closing below 1.2050. Sell in between 1.2920-1.3100 with targets at 1.2870-1.2800-1.2720 and 1.2670-1.2610-1.2500 with a stop loss of 1.2950.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of JPY149.60/USD an intraday high of 153.88/USD, and settled the day down by % at JPY149.92/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (155.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 150.00-154.00 with risk above 154.00 targeting 149.50-149.0-148.40 and 147.50-146.90-146.45. Long positions above 149.500-146.00 with targets of 150.40-151.00-151.60 and 152.50-153.20-154.00 with stops below 146.00.