Daily Markets

• The dollar slipped on Tuesday in thin, choppy trading after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a moderately dovish tone in his comments, suggesting that the U.S. central bank is more than likely to start its easing cycle later this year Powell, in a monetary policy conference in Portugal, said the U.S. economy has made significant progress on inflation as it gets back on the disinflationary path. His remarks were viewed as dovish, analysts said. Comments by the Fed's top official outweighed data showing U.S. job openings increased in May after posting outsized declines in the prior two months. Job openings, a measure of labor demand, rose 221,000 to 8.140 million on the last day of May, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey or JOLTS report. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 7.910 million job openings in May. Data for April was revised lower to show 7.919 million unfilled positions instead of the previously reported 8.059 million Following the JOLTS report and Powell's comments, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 69% chance of a rate cut in September, up from about 63% on Monday, according to LSEG calculations. The market has also priced in one to two rate cuts in 2024. The dollar has been recently supported overall by the persistent rise in Treasury yields. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose nearly 14 basis points (bps) to 4.479% overnight, with analysts linking the rise to expectations that Donald Trump will win the U.S. presidency, in turn leading to higher tariffs and government borrowing. On Tuesday, the yield on the 10-year note pulled back, sliding 4.3 bps to 4.435%. Japan's finance minister said on Tuesday authorities were vigilant to sharp currency market moves, but stopped short of giving a clear intervention warning. Against the euro, the yen touched a lifetime low of 173.67 on Monday and was just shy of that level on Tuesday, while against the Australian dollar the yen was near its lowest in 33 years as carry trade remained attractive. The euro was flat against the dollar at $1.0741, showing little reaction to comments on Tuesday from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who was in the same monetary policy forum with Powell. She said the euro zone is "very advanced" on the disinflationary path but there remain "question marks" hanging over the outlook for economic growth. Euro zone inflation eased last month but a crucial services component remained stubbornly high, fuelling concern that domestic price pressures could stay at elevated levels. The market is now looking to the second round of French elections during the weekend.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$2336.70/oz and low of $2318.98/oz. Gold is down by 0.023% at US$2329.10/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2334-2382 keeping stop loss closing above 2382, targeting 2300-2290 and 2281-2270-2258. Buy in between 2322-2250 with risk below 2250 targeting 2334-2350-2362 and 2374-2382 -2390.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$29.80/oz and low of US$29.18/oz settle up by 0.217% at US$29.49/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 29.50-26.90, targeting 28.90-29.40-30.10 and 31.00-31.90-32.40 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 23.00. Sell in between 29.90-32.00 with a stop loss above 35.50 targeting 29.40-28.40-27.90 and 27.10-26.50-26.00.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$83.74/bbl, an intraday low of US$82.23/bbl, and settled down by 0.196% to close at US$82.66/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 82.90-85.29 with stop loss at 85.30; targeting 82.00-81.20-80.00 and 79.20-78.10-77.00. Buy above 82.00-75.00 with risk daily closing below 75.00, targeting 83.00-83.90-84.50 and 85.80-86.50-87.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.0709/EUR, a high of US$1.0746/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.0456% to close at US$1.0744/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0785-1.1100, targeting 1.0700-1.0640-with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0740-1.0450 with risk below 1.0400 targeting 1.0845-1.0890 and 1.1020-1.1105-1.1145.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2614/GBP, a high of US$1.2687/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.274% to close at US$1.2683/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2650-1.2050 with a target of 1.2760-1.2830-1.2890 and 1.2950-1.2990 with a stop loss closing below 1.2050. Sell in between 1.2700-1.3100 with targets at 1.2670 and 1.2610-1.2500-1.2450 with a stop loss of 1.2950.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made an intra‐day low of JPY160.67/USD an intraday high of 161.73/USD, and settled the day up by 0.007% at JPY161.38/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 161.90-163.00 with risk above 162.00 targeting 159.60-159.00-158.60 and 158.00-157.50-156.00. Long positions above 161.30-156.50 with targets of 162.00-162.50-163.20 and 164.00-165.00 with stops below 156.00.