Daily Markets

• The dollar rose to a seven-week high against the yen on Thursday, while the sterling and euro fell amid on the U.S. economy is coming off the boil while traders watch for more data bolstering the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year. May retail sales released this week were tepid and the labor market appears to be weakening. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, but was still more than expected, data released on Thursday showed, indicating the jobs market remained strong despite a gradual cooling. The dollar hit its highest since April 29 against the yen and was last up 0.51% at 158.89 yen in New York trading. Traders remain on alert for signs of continued intervention by the Bank of Japan to boost a currency that hit 34-year lows in late April. Yen markets have been rattled since a dovish Bank of Japan last week maintained its policy target and said it intends to soon release a plan to trim bond buying. Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said earlier on Thursday there is no limit to the resources available for foreign exchange interventions, Jiji News Agency reported. Along with yen weakness, downturns in the euro and sterling have supported the dollar index, which tracks the currency against six peers, rise 0.4% to 105.61. The Swiss franc also fell after the Swiss National Bank lowered interest rates to 1.25%, following a cut in March. The dollar climbed 0.7% to 0.8909 francs as the Swiss currency fell from around a three-month high after the rate cut, which came with forecasts predicting a further fall in inflation to 1.1% in 2025. The dollar index rose after a volatile 10 days, with mixed U.S. economic data and political uncertainty in France that rocked European markets.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$2365.38/oz and low of $2327.66/oz. Gold is down by 1.33% at US$2359.76/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2364-2382 keeping stop loss closing above 2382, targeting 2309-2300-2290 and 2281-2270-2258. Buy in between 2350-2290 with risk below 2290 targeting 2362-2374-2382 and 2390-2400.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$30.77/oz and low of US$29.70/oz settle up by 3.376% at US$30.71/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 30.10-26.90, targeting 31.00-31.90-32.40 and 33.00-33.70-34.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 23.00. Sell in between 30.90-32.00 with a stop loss above 35.50 targeting 30.40-29.80-28.90 and 28.40-27.90-27.10.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$81.37/bbl, an intraday low of US$80.27/bbl, and settled up by 0.826% to close at US$81.10/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 81.00-83.29 with stop loss at 83.30; targeting 79.20-78.10-77.00 and 76.40-74.90-74.00. Buy above 80.20-75.00 with risk daily closing below 75.00, targeting 80.00-80.60-81.30 and 82.00-83.00-83.90.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.0700/EUR, a high of US$1.0747/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.353% to close at US$1.0701/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0785-1.1100, targeting 1.0700-1.0640-with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0690-1.0450 with risk below 1.0400 targeting 1.0845-1.0890 and 1.1020-1.1105-1.1145.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2653/GBP, a high of US$1.2722/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.462% to close at US$1.2655/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2650-1.2050 with a target of 1.2760-1.2830-1.2890 and 1.2950-1.2990 with a stop loss closing below 1.2050. Sell in between 1.2700-1.3100 with targets at 1.2670 and 1.2610-1.2500-1.2450 with a stop loss of 1.2950.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday made an intra‐day low of JPY157.75/USD an intraday high of 158.92/USD, and settled the day up by 0.528% at JPY158.89/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 159.00-159.00 with risk above 159.00 targeting 158.60-158.00-157.50 and 157.00-156.00-155.50. Long positions above 158.60-149.50 with targets of 159.00-159.60-160.20 and 161.00-161.50 with stops below 149.50.