Daily Markets

• Most Asian stocks moved little on Friday with focus squarely on upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, which is expected to provide more cues on when the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates. Focus was also on a Reserve Bank of India decision on interest rates, after local stocks saw wild swings this week following a surprise result in the 2024 general elections. Regional stocks took middling overnight cues from Wall Street, as investors hunkered down before the payrolls data, which is expected to provide definitive cues on the labor market and interest rates. U.S. stock index futures tread water in Asian trade. Still, appetite for risk-driven assets was somewhat buoyed by interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank this week, which drummed up optimism over looser monetary conditions this year. The Reserve Bank of India is widely expected to keep its policy repo rate unchanged on Friday, with few plans to begin altering policy, given that inflation has remained sticky in the country. But the RBI is also expected to reiterate a strong outlook for the Indian economy. Governor Kauo Ueda reiterated plans for such a moved earlier this week, while signs of a rebound in Japanese inflation and improving wages also drove up expectations of tighter policy. But other data released on Friday showed Japanese household spending fell more than expected in April, raising doubts over just how much headroom the BOJ had to tighten policy.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$2378.35/oz and low of $2353.40/oz. Gold is up by 0.854% at US$2375.58/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2374-2420 keeping stop loss closing above 2420, targeting 2362-2340-2331 and 2320-2309-2300. Buy in between 2354-2277 with risk below 2290 targeting 2374-2382-2394-2405.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$31.32/oz and low of US$29.94/oz settle up by 4.323% at US$31.29/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 31.10-26.90, targeting 31.90-32.40 and 33.00-33.70-34.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 23.00. Sell in between 31.90-35.00 with a stop loss above 35.50 targeting 30.40-29.80-28.90 and 28.40-27.90-27.10.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$75.54/bbl, an intraday low of US$73.86/bbl, and settled up by 1.90% to close at US$75.41/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 75.50-79.20 with stop loss at 80.00; targeting 74.90-74.00-73.20 and 72.00-71.40-70.60. Buy above 74.90-70.00 with risk daily closing below 70.00, targeting 75.50 and 76.40-77.00-78.10.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.0861/EUR, a high of US$1.0901/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.185% to close at US$1.0887/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0900-1.1100, targeting 1.0700-1.0640-with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0860-1.0450 with risk below 1.0400 targeting 1.0845-1.0890 and 1.1020-1.1105-1.1145.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2761/GBP, a high of US$1.2808/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.344% to close at US$1.2789/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2700-1.2050 with a target of 1.2760-1.2830-1.2890 and 1.2950-1.2990 with a stop loss closing below 1.2050. Sell in between 1.2800-1.3100 with targets at 1.2760-1.2700-1.2670 and 1.2610-1.2500-1.2450 with a stop loss of 1.2950.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of JPY154.68/USD an intraday high of 156.47/USD, and settled the day up by 0.126% at JPY156.06/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 156.00-159.00 with risk above 159.00 targeting 156.00-155.50-154.30 and 153.60-153.10-152.60. Long positions above 155.20-149.50 with targets of 156.90-157.50 and 158.00-158.60 with stops below 149.50.