Daily Markets

• The dollar rose against the euro on Thursday after data showed U.S. business activity accelerated to the highest level in just over two years in May, suggesting that economic growth picked up half-way through the second quarter. S&P Global said that its flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, jumped to 54.4 this month. That was the highest level since April 2022 and followed a final reading of 51.3 in April. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the private sector. Data on Thursday also showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, pointing to underlying strength in the labour market that should continue to support the economy. Federal Reserve officials at their last policy meeting said they still had faith that price pressures would ease at least slowly in coming months, but doubts emerged about whether the current level of interest rates was high enough to guarantee that outcome and "various" officials said they'd be willing to hike borrowing costs again if inflation surged. The euro was down 0.2% at $1.080525. The common currency rose as high as $1.0861 earlier in the session after the preliminary composite Purchasing Managers' Index for the currency bloc came in above the 50 level separating growth from contraction for the third month in a row, with even struggling manufacturing showing a recovery. Better-than-feared economic data for the past few months helped the euro rally in April and early May, and Thursday's data pushed the currency back towards mid-May's two-month high of $1.0895. The pound slipped 0.2% to $1.2689 against the dollar. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Wednesday called a national election, which his Conservatives are widely expected to lose to the opposition Labour Party after 14 years in power. However, sterling options volatility for the period covering the July 4 election did rise. The dollar was 0.1% higher against the Japanese currency at 156.91 yen after data showed Japan's factory activity crept into expansion for the first time in a year in May. The corporate sector in Japan has been grappling with the weak yen, and nearly half of Japanese firms find the yen's slide beyond 155 to the dollar harmful to their business, roughly double the percentage of those who see the currency's weakness as a positive, a Reuters survey showed on Thursday. It has been surging amid speculation over the potential approval of U.S. spot exchange-traded funds that would track the world's second-biggest cryptocurrency.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$2383.62/oz and low of $2326.74/oz. Gold is down by 2.12% at US$2328.17/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2338-2400 keeping stop loss closing above 2400, targeting 2320-2309-2300 and 2290-2277. Buy in between 2320-2277 with risk below 2277 targeting 2338-2350-2360 and 2382-2394-2405..

Silver - XAG

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$30.96/oz and low of US$30.04/oz settle down by 3.71% at US$30.09/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 30.10-28.90, targeting 31.10-31.90-32.40 and 33.00-33.70-34.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 23.00. Sell in between 31.00-35.00 with a stop loss above 35.50 targeting 30.40-29.80-28.90 and 28.40-27.90-27.10.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$78.52/bbl, an intraday low of US$76.31/bbl, and settled down by 0.400% to close at US$76.83/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 77.00-89.65 with stop loss at 90.00; targeting 77.50 and 77.00-76.40. Buy above 76.50-75.00 with risk daily closing below 75.00, targeting 78.10-79.00-79.90 and 80.50-81.10-82.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.0804/EUR, a high of US$1.0860/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.073% to close at US$1.0814/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0890-1.1100, targeting 1.0700-1.0640-with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0850-1.0450 with risk below 1.0400 targeting 1.0845-1.0890 and 1.1020-1.1105-1.1145.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2684/GBP, a high of US$1.2745/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.143% to close at US$1.2697/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2650-1.2050 with a target of 1.2690-1.2730-1.2760 and 1.2830-1.2890 with a stop loss closing below 1.2050. Sell in between 1.2730-1.2900 with targets at 1.2670-1.2610-1.2500 and 1.2450-1.2360-1.2300 with a stop loss of 1.2950.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday made an intra‐day low of JPY156.52/USD an intraday high of 157.18/USD, and settled the day up by 0.0733% at JPY156.87/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 157.50-159.00 with risk above 159.00 targeting 153.10-152.60-151.00 and 150.60-149.90-149.30. Long positions above 156.90-149.50 with targets of 156.50-156.90-157.50 and 158.00-158.60 with stops below 149.50.