Daily Markets

• The dollar inched higher Wednesday and will remain the king of the currency playground until U.S. "economic exceptionalism" cools, paving the way for the Federal Reserve to lay out a clearer map for rate cuts. "Until the rest of the world begins to surpass the U.S., and until the Fed sets forth a clearer horizon for the start of policy easing, we continue to believe that it will be difficult for FX to rally against the USD," Macquarie said in Wednesday note. "US economic exceptionalism" remains the "dominate theme" in FX, Macquarie said, and has encouraged the Federal Reserve to lean hawkish at time when other central banks appear to signaling for sooner rather than later rate cuts. The Fed remains "far and away more hawkish sounding than the ECB, BoE, BoC, and RBA," Macquarie says, noting that the PCE price index on Friday and U.S. GDP on Thursday will be closely watched. The bump in the road for the dollar, however, could come only after the summer, Macquarie, though cautions that a various factors will need to come together including a further slowing inflation, slowing euro-area growth and easing geopolitical turmoil. There some signs, however, that other economies on the mend as recent data1 economic data from UK and Euro surprised the upside and helped GBP/USD and the EUR/USD rebound yesterday, but "it will take a more sustained period of outperformance by the rest-of-the world to shake confidence in US economic exceptionalism." The easing of tensions in the Middle East, with Iran indicating little desire to engage in all-out war with Israel following the latter's strike last week, has resulted in the safe-haven dollar retreating from recent highs.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$2337.21/oz and low of $2311.70/oz. Gold is down by 0.267% at US$2315.73/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2330-2380 keeping stop loss closing above 2400, targeting 2300-2280-2267. Buy in between 2310-2254 with risk below 2250 targeting 2325-2340-2351 and 2360-2369-2380.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$27.47/oz and low of US$27.01/oz settle down by 0.531% at US$27.14/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 26.80-23.90, targeting 27.50-27.90-28.90 and 29.40-30.00-30.40-31.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 23.00. Sell in between 27.90-30.50 with a stop loss above 30.50 targeting 27.00-26.40-25.90 and 25.45-24.90 and 24.60-23.90-23.20.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$83.47/bbl, an intraday low of US$82.24/bbl, and settled down by 0.655% to close at US82.61/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 82.90-89.65 with stop loss at 90.00; targeting 82.00-81.10-79.90. Buy above 82.50-75.00 with risk daily closing below 75.00, targeting 82.70-83.50-84.70 and 86.70-87.50-88.40.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.0677/EUR, a high of US$1.0713/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.284% to close at US$1.0697/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0740-1.1100, targeting 1.0775 and 1.0770-1.0640 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0690-1.0450 with risk below 1.0400 targeting 1.0845-1.0890 and 1.1020-1.1105-1.1145.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2469/GBP, a high of US$1.2469/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.114% to close at US$1.2462/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2400-1.2050 with a target of 1.2500-1.2540 and 1.2600-1.2690-1.2730 with a stop loss closing below 1.2050. Sell in between 1.2500-1.2700 with targets at 1.2360-1.2300-1.2240 and 1.2190-1.2100 with a stop loss of 1.2950.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of JPY154.70/USD an intraday high of 155.36/USD, and settled the day up by 0.336% at JPY155.32/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 156.00-159.00 with risk above 159.00 targeting 153.10-152.60-151.00 and 150.60-149.90-149.30. Long positions above 154.00-149.90 with targets of 154.00-154.90 and 155.59-156.10 with stops below 149.90.