Daily Markets

• The U.S. dollar climbed to a fresh 34-year peak against the yen in quiet trading on Monday, with investors taking their cue from the Federal Reserve's higher-for-longer interest rate stance, even as they remained alert to any signs of intervention by Japan to prop up its struggling currency. The yen hit fresh lows ahead of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policy meeting on Friday. Market players took note of the fact that Japan has refrained from intervening in the currency market despite the yen hitting several 34-year lows this year. In late afternoon trading, the dollar index, a gauge of the greenback's value against six major currencies, was flat to slightly higher at 106.13. It was off five-month highs hit last week after comments from Federal Reserve officials and a run of hotter-than-expected inflation data forced a paring back of U.S. rate-cut expectations. Cooling Middle East tensions, which had driven the dollar, gold and oil sharply higher on Friday and battered stock markets, also helped temper volatility. Tehran downplayed Israel's retaliatory drone strike, in what appeared to be a move aimed at averting regional escalation. Last week, Deutsche Bank's index of currency volatility hit 7.18, the highest level since February. On a weekly basis, the volatility index rose 9.7%, its biggest gain since June 2023. Besides the BOJ meeting, the market is looking at U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product data on Thursday and the inflation metric the Fed targets, the personal consumption price expenditures (PCE) index, due out on Friday. Markets are expecting a 0.3% increase in the headline PCE number in March, unchanged from the previous month, and a year-on-year gain of 2.6%, compared with 2.5% in February, according to a Reuters poll. In addition, TD added that a combination of higher inflation and risk-off sentiment increases the chances of former U.S. President Donald Trump's victory.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$2389.87/oz and low of $2324.86/oz. Gold is down by 0.580% at US$2326.96/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2310-2380 keeping stop loss closing above 2400, targeting 2300-2280-2267. Buy in between 2300-2254 with risk below 2250 targeting 2325-2340-2351 and 2360-2369-2380.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$28.69/oz and low of US$27.09/oz settle up by 5.29% at US$27.17/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 26.80-23.90, targeting 27.50-27.90-28.90 and 29.40-30.00-30.40-31.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 23.00. Sell in between 27.90-30.50 with a stop loss above 30.50 targeting 27.00-26.40-25.90 and 25.45-24.90 and 24.60-23.90-23.20.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$82.16/bbl, an intraday low of US$80.60/bbl, and settled up by 0.250% to close at US82.01/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 81.0.00-89.65 with stop loss at 90.00; targeting 82.00-81.10-79.90. Buy above 82.50-75.00 with risk daily closing below 75.00, targeting 82.70-83.50-84.70 and 86.70-87.50-88.40.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.0623/EUR, a high of US$1.0670/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.0751% to close at US$1.0653/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0650-1.1100, targeting 1.0775 and 1.0770-1.0640 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0590-1.0450 with risk below 1.0400 targeting 1.0845-1.0890 and 1.1020-1.1105-1.1145.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2298/GBP, a high of US$1.2391/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.145% to close at US$1.2348/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2350-1.2050 with a target of 1.2410-1.2500-1.2540 and 1.2600-1.2690-1.2730 with a stop loss closing below 1.2050. Sell in between 1.2410-1.2700 with targets at 1.2360-1.2300-1.2240 and 1.2190-1.2100 with a stop loss of 1.2950.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made an intra‐day low of JPY154.39/USD an intraday high of 154.84/USD, and settled the day up by 0.019% at JPY154.82/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 154.90-156.00 with risk above 156.00 targeting 153.10-152.60-151.00 and 150.60-149.90-149.30. Long positions above 154.00-149.90 with targets of 154.00-154.90 and 155.59-156.10 with stops below 149.90.