Daily Markets

• The dollar rose on Thursday as a mixed batch of U.S. data did little to shake views that the economy is still on solid ground, suggesting the Federal Reserve will likely delay the timing of its first interest rate cut since 2020 to later this year. Comments from New York Fed President John Williams saying there is no urgent need to cut interest rates right now given the strength of the economy, also helped lift the dollar. The New York Fed president is always a voter on the central bank's policy-setting committee. A warning by finance chiefs of the United States, Japan and Korea over sharp decline in the yen and won weighed, however, on the dollar overnight and gave the yen some rare respite. But the impact has since dissipated. The yen had risen modestly on Wednesday after Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said finance leaders of the G7 reaffirmed their stance that excessive currency volatility was undesirable. But strong U.S. economic data and persistent inflation have prompted investors to drastically rethink the chances of the Fed cutting rates any time soon. On Thursday, that strength was on display once again. Manufacturing activity in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region expanded by the most in two years in April on the strength of new orders and shipments of finished goods. The Philadelphia Fed's monthly business conditions index rose to 15.5 from 3.2 in March, exceeding the median estimate among economists for a reading of 2.3 and overshooting even the most optimistic forecast among 34 economists surveyed. Other economic reports on Thursday were neutral to weak. U.S. initial jobless claims were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 212,000 for the week ended April 13, data showed, still higher than the forecast of 215,000. In the housing sector, U.S. existing home sales fell in March as higher interest rates and house prices sidelined buyers. Home sales dropped 4.3% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.19 million units. In afternoon trading, the dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six of its peers, rose 0.2% at 106.15, still within reach of this week's 5-1/2-month high of 106.51 hit on Tuesday. The index has been up 4.5% so far this year. Market participants have raised the bar on possible intervention by Japanese authorities to prop up the yen, now pointing to the 155 level, even though they believe Japan could step in any time. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday the central bank may raise interest rates again if the yen's declines significantly push up domestic inflation.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$2417.52/oz and low of $2372.80/oz. Gold is up by 0.580% at US$2392.33/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2380-2430 keeping stop loss closing above 2430, targeting 2350 and 2325-2310-2280. Buy in between 2360-2300 with risk below 2300 targeting 2360 and 2369-2380-2400.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$28.91/oz and low of US$28.04/oz settle up by % at US$28.68/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 27.80-23.90, targeting 28.90-29.40-30.00 and 30.40-31.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 23.00. Sell in between 28.90-30.50 with a stop loss above 30.50 targeting 27.00-26.40-25.90 and 25.45-24.90 and 24.60-23.90-23.20.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$85.51/bbl, an intraday low of US$81.08/bbl, and settled up by 0.117% to close at US82.03/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 81.0.00-89.65 with stop loss at 90.00; targeting 82.00-81.10-79.90. Buy above 82.50-75.00 with risk daily closing below 75.00, targeting 82.70-83.50-84.70 and 86.70-87.50-88.40.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0609/EUR, a high of US$1.0676/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.133% to close at US$1.0656/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0650-1.1100, targeting 1.0775 and 1.0770-1.0640 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0590-1.0450 with risk below 1.0400 targeting 1.0845-1.0890 and 1.1020-1.1105-1.1145.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2366/GBP, a high of US$1.2467/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.55% to close at US$1.2369/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2350-1.2050 with a target of 1.2410-1.2500-1.2540 and 1.2600-1.2690-1.2730 with a stop loss closing below 1.2050. Sell in between 1.2410-1.2700 with targets at 1.2360-1.2300-1.2240 and 1.2190-1.2100 with a stop loss of 1.2950.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday made an intra‐day low of JPY153.58/USD an intraday high of 154.66/USD, and settled the day up by 0.019% at JPY154.65/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 154.90-156.00 with risk above 156.00 targeting 153.10-152.60-151.00 and 150.60-149.90-149.30. Long positions above 154.00-149.90 with targets of 154.00-154.90 and 155.59-156.10 with stops below 149.90.