Daily Markets

• The dollar rose on Tuesday as traders waited on a fresh catalyst to give clues on Federal Reserve policy, while the yen slipped after Japan’s finance minister said that he would not rule out any measures to cope with the weakening currency. Investors are grappling with whether the U.S. central bank will cut interest rates three times this year, as is currently expected, if inflation remains elevated and economic growth stays strong. The dollar index bounced slightly after data on Tuesday showed that orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods increased more than expected in February, while business spending on equipment showed tentative signs of recovery as the economy's growth prospects in the first quarter remained upbeat Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) due on Friday is this week’s main economic catalyst. The U.S. core PCE price index is seen rising 0.3% in February, which would keep the annual pace at 2.8%. Trading volumes on Friday may be light, however, with the U.S. stock and Treasuries markets closed for the Good Friday holiday. The greenback may come under some pressure this week from month- and quarter-end portfolio rebalancing. The yen dipped 0.09% to 151.52, reversing earlier gains, as verbal intervention by Japanese officials continued. It has weakened in the past week, despite the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) ending eight years of negative interest rates. Traders continue to focus on the still-stark interest rate differentials between Japan and the rest of the world, particularly the United States. A break past 151.94 per dollar, hit in October 2022, would take the Japanese currency to its weakest since 1990. In 2022, Japanese authorities intervened in currency markets to support the yen. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Tuesday that “rapid currency moves are undesirable.” That came after Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda on Monday warned against speculators trying to sell off the yen. The carry trade sees investors borrow in low yielding currencies to invest in higher yielding ones. China's yuan has also been on traders' radars since its sudden sharp fall on Friday. It gained slightly in the offshore market to 7.248 per dollar after a firmer-than-expected fix from the People's Bank of China.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$2200.00/oz and low of $2167.51/oz. Gold is up by 0.319% at US$2178.46/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (1953). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 1,927. The MACD is currently below the zero line but the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 45.31, which is in the neutral region, suggesting there may be more selling pressure before it rebounds. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the oversold territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell in between 2190-2250 keeping stop loss closing above 2250, targeting 2170-2154 and 2,140- 2,129-2,120 Buy in between 2170-2120 with risk below 2066 targeting 2190-2209-2,225-2,230 and 2,239-2,250.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$24.87/oz and low of US$24.34/oz settle down by 0.755% at US$24.34/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (22.91), breakage above will lead to 23.51. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend, bringing a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.60-19.30, targeting 25.00-25.45-25.90 and 26.50-26.90-27.50 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 19.00. Sell in between 25.35-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50 targeting 24.90-24.60-23.90 and 23.20-22.40-21.50.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$82.14bbl, an intraday low of US$81.02/bbl, and settled down by 0.850% to close at US81.06/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 81.10-85.30 with stop loss at 85.30; targeting 79.90-79.00 and 78.00-77.30-76.50. Buy above 79.90-75.00 with risk daily closing below 75.00; targeting 80.80-81.50-82.00 and 82.70-83.35-84.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.0823/EUR, a high of US$1.0863/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.0396% to close at US$1.0831/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0905-1.1100, targeting 1.0805-1.0775 and 1.0770-1.0640 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100- Buy above 1.0805-1.0450 with risk below 1.0400 targeting 1.0890 and 1.1020-1.1105-1.1145.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2621/GBP, a high of US$1.2667/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.055% to close at US$1.2628/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2600-1.2050 with a target of 1.2690-1.2730 and 1.2790-1.2850-1.2890 with a stop loss closing below 1.2050. Sell in between 1.2700-1.3120 with targets at 1.2630-1.2540-1.2490 with a stop loss of 1.2950.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of JPY151.20/USD an intraday high of 151.59/USD, and settled the day up by 0.0819% at JPY151.51/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 151.20-154.00 with risk above 154.00 targeting 151.00-150.60-149.90-149.30 and 148.10-147.40-146.95. Long positions above 151.00-141.90 with targets of 151.30-51.90 and 152.50-153.10-154.00 with stops below 141.90.