Daily Markets

• The yen was little changed on Monday, giving up earlier gains after Japan’s top currency diplomat warned against speculators trying to weaken the currency, while the dollar index fell from a one-month high reached on Friday. Masato Kanda, Japan's vice finance minister for international affairs, said that weakness in the Japanese currency did not reflect fundamentals, in the latest warning about the currency's "big slide" against the dollar. Traders are watching the level around 152 for signs of possible intervention, although Schamotta noted that the government may not step in unless volatility picks up, adding that this factor may be more important than the exchange rate. The Japanese currency has dropped despite the Bank of Japan hiking interest rates out of negative territory last week. China's yuan gained in the offshore market to 7.2525, propped up by suspected selling of dollars by state-owned banks and a strong official guidance set by the country's central bank. It earlier fell to its weakest levels in four months at 7.2810. The Chinese currency has been pressured by growing market expectations of further monetary easing to prop up the world's second-largest economy. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that the U.S. central bank remains on track for rate cuts this year, despite stickier than expected inflation in January and February. Some Fed officials including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, however, have expressed concern about persistent inflation and stronger-than-anticipated economic data. Bostic said on Friday that he expects just a single quarter-point interest rate cut this year instead of the two he had projected. Fed officials said on Monday they had faith that U.S. inflation will ease, but acknowledged an increased sense of caution around the debate. The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index for February due on Friday is the next major release for further clues on Fed policy. The data will come as other markets including stocks and bonds are closed for the Good Friday holiday, which may reduce foreign exchange trading volumes. Data on Monday showed that sales of new U.S. single-family homes unexpectedly fell in February after mortgage rates increased during the month. Bets for a June rate cut by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England (BoE) have risen substantially after the Swiss National Bank became the first major central bank to lower borrowing costs last week and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey told the Financial Times that rate cuts "were in play" this year.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$2181.20/oz and low of $2163.53/oz. Gold is up by 0.284% at US$2171.56/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (1953). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 1,927. The MACD is currently below the zero line but the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 45.31, which is in the neutral region, suggesting there may be more selling pressure before it rebounds. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the oversold territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell in between 2190-2250 keeping stop loss closing above 2250, targeting 2170-2154 and 2,140- 2,129-2,120 Buy in between 2170-2120 with risk below 2066 targeting 2190-2209-2,225-2,230 and 2,239-2,250.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$24.87/oz and low of US$24.53/oz settle u by 0.085% at US$24.66/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (22.91), breakage above will lead to 23.51. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend, bringing a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.60-19.30, targeting 25.00-25.45-25.90 and 26.50-26.90-27.50 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 19.00. Sell in between 25.35-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50 targeting 24.90-24.60-23.90 and 23.20-22.40-21.50.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$82.27/bbl, an intraday low of US$80.44/bbl, and settled up by 1.385% to close at US81.80/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 81.10-85.30 with stop loss at 85.30; targeting 79.90-79.00 and 78.00-77.30-76.50. Buy above 79.90-75.00 with risk daily closing below 75.00; targeting 80.80-81.50-82.00 and 82.70-83.35-84.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.0801/EUR, a high of US$1.0841/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.270% to close at US$1.0835/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0905-1.1100, targeting 1.0805-1.0775 and 1.0770-1.0640 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100- Buy above 1.0805-1.0450 with risk below 1.0400 targeting 1.0890 and 1.1020-1.1105-1.1145.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2590/GBP, a high of US$1.2651/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.291% to close at US$1.2625/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2600-1.2050 with a target of 1.2690-1.2730 and 1.2790-1.2850-1.2890 with a stop loss closing below 1.2050. Sell in between 1.2700-1.3120 with targets at 1.2630-1.2540-1.2490 with a stop loss of 1.2950.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made an intra‐day low of JPY151.04/USD an intraday high of 151.53/USD, and settled the day up by 0.00924% at JPY151.39/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 151.20-154.00 with risk above 154.00 targeting 151.00-150.60-149.90-149.30 and 148.10-147.40-146.95. Long positions above 151.00-141.90 with targets of 151.30-51.90 and 152.50-153.10-154.00 with stops below 141.90.