Daily Markets

• The dollar rose on Thursday after the Swiss National Bank's surprise interest rate cut bolstered global risk sentiment and underscored the appeal of the greenback amid strong U.S. economic growth. Sterling slid after the Bank of England (BoE) kept its benchmark interest rate on hold as expected. But after the Federal Reserve projected a less restrictive policy stance than expected on Wednesday, risk assets worldwide soared, as did the outlook for investment flows to the U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday recent high inflation readings had not changed the overall story of slowly easing U.S. price pressures. Fed policymakers now expect the U.S. economy to grow 2.1% in 2024, above what's considered its long-run potential and a substantial upgrade from the 1.4% growth seen in December. The differential in U.S. interest rates and those of other major economies also helped the dollar. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes rose 0.4 basis points to 4.273%. The BoE's interest rate setters voted 8-1 to keep borrowing costs at a 16-year high of 5.25% as two officials who had previously called for higher rates changed their stance. Governor Andrew Bailey said there had been "further encouraging signs that inflation is coming down" but he also said the BoE needed more certainty that price pressures in the economy were fully under control. The BoE's decision came a day after data showed inflation fell to its lowest level in almost two-and-a-half years - even if it remains higher than the bank wants. The Swiss franc fell sharply against the dollar and sank to its weakest point since July 2023 against the euro, after the SNB unexpectedly cut rates. The rate cut was the Swiss central bank's first in nine years. A majority of analysts polled by Reuters had expected the SNB to keep rates on hold. The yen steadied against a strengthening dollar as it drew some support from expectations of further rate hikes from the Bank of Japan later this year and some jaw-boning efforts from Japanese government officials.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$2222.72/oz and low of $2166.30/oz. Gold is down by 0.025% at US$2181.11/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (1953). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 1,927. The MACD is currently below the zero line but the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 45.31, which is in the neutral region, suggesting there may be more selling pressure before it rebounds. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the oversold territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell in between 2190-2250 keeping stop loss closing above 2250, targeting 2170-2154 and 2,140- 2,129-2,120 Buy in between 2170-2120 with risk below 2066 targeting 2190-2209-2,225-2,230 and 2,239-2,250.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$25.75/oz and low of US$24.62/oz settle down by 3.244% at US$24.72/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (22.91), breakage above will lead to 23.51. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend, bringing a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.60-19.30, targeting 25.00-25.45-25.90 and 26.50-26.90-27.50 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 19.00. Sell in between 25.35-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50 targeting 24.90-24.60-23.90 and 23.20-22.40-21.50.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$81.79/bbl, an intraday low of US$80.22/bbl, and settled down by 1.376% to close at US80.70/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 80.80-85.30 with stop loss at 85.30; targeting 79.90-79.00 and 78.00-77.30-76.50. Buy above 79.90-75.00 with risk daily closing below 75.00; targeting 80.80-81.50-82.00 and 82.70-83.35-84.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.0854/EUR, a high of US$1.0941/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.547% to close at US$1.0860/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0905-1.1100, targeting 1.0805-1.0775 and 1.0770-1.0640 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0805-1.0450 with risk below 1.0400 targeting 1.0890 and 1.1020-1.1105-1.1145.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2649/GBP, a high of US$1.2802/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.995% to close at US$1.2655/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2670-1.2050 with a target of 1.2690-1.2730 and 1.2790-1.2850-1.2890 with a stop loss closing below 1.2050. Sell in between 1.2700-1.3120 with targets at 1.2630-1.2540-1.2490 with a stop loss of 1.2950.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday made an intra‐day low of JPY150.25/USD an intraday high of 151.74/USD, and settled the day up by 0.2586% at JPY151.58/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 151.70-154.00 with risk above 154.00 targeting 151.00-150.60-149.90-149.30 and 148.10-147.40-146.95. Long positions above 151.00-141.90 with targets of 151.30-51.90 and 152.50-153.10-154.00 with stops below 141.90.