Daily Markets

• The dollar fell across the board on Thursday, as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. central bank is "not far" from getting enough confidence that inflation is heading to its 2% goal to start cutting interest rates. The euro initially stumbled after the ECB kept rates steady despite acknowledging cooling inflation, but recovered to log its biggest daily gain against the greenback in about a month. The common currency hit a six-week high against the broadly weak dollar. Powell had told lawmakers on Wednesday that interest rate cuts were still likely in coming months but only if warranted by further evidence of falling inflation. Investors' growing appetite for riskier assets, including stocks, also weighed on the dollar, Chandler said. The European Central Bank cautiously laid the ground to lower rates later this year. While the policymakers did not discuss cuts for this meeting, they are just beginning to discuss the dialling back of their restrictive stance, Lagarde said. That discussion signals "the ECB is getting closer and closer to that starting point for dialling back stimulus," said Bipan Rai, North America head of FX strategy at CIBC. The euro's strength on Thursday had more to do with the dollar's broad weakness than any big change in investors' attitude toward the common currency, analysts said. Data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits was unchanged last week as the labor market continued to gradually ease. The Labor Department's February employment report is due on Friday. Meanwhile, the yen was set for its biggest jump versus the dollar this year on Thursday, driven by growing speculation that the Bank of Japan could finally raise rates this month. BOJ board member Junko Nakagawa said on Thursday Japan's economy was moving steadily towards sustainably achieving the central bank's 2% inflation target. The yen has been under pressure for most of the past two years because of the gap between sub-zero Japanese interest rates and a global rise in rates, as other major central banks aggressively hiked interest rates to tame inflation. With market participants significantly short the Japanese currency, anything that even mildly supports the yen can spark a sharp move in the Japanese currency, CIBC's Rai said. Speculators' net short positioning on the yen stood at 132,705 contracts, the largest bearish position in more than six years, according to CFTC data for the week ended Feb. 27. The pound rose 0.58% against the dollar after UK finance minister Jeremy Hunt's spring budget offered a raft of tax cuts, but little in the way of surprises for the market, leaving more focus on the direction of the U.S. dollar.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$2164.65/oz and low of $2144.14/oz. Gold is up by 0.542% at US$2159.69/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (1953). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 1,927. The MACD is currently below the zero line but the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 45.31, which is in the neutral region, suggesting there may be more selling pressure before it rebounds. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the oversold territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell in between 2160-2200 keeping stop loss closing above 2200, targeting 2,140-2,129-2,120 and 2100-2088-2074-2066. Buy in between 2140-2066 with risk below 2066 targeting 2160-2172-2180 and 2190-2200.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$24.48/oz and low of US$23.99/oz settle up by 0.737% at US$24.31/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (22.91), breakage above will lead to 23.51. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend, bringing a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 23.90-19.30, targeting 23.90-24.60 and 25.00-25.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 19.00. Sell in between 24.30-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50 targeting 23.20-22.40-21.90 and 21.50-20.90-20.50.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$79.05/bbl, an intraday low of US$77.61/bbl, and settled up by 0.439% to close at US78.92/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 79.90-83.30 with stop loss at 83.30; targeting 79.00-78.00-76.50 and 75.75-74.40-73.70. Buy above 78.75-71.00 with risk daily closing below 71.00; targeting 79.00 and 79.90-80.80.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.0867/EUR, a high of US$1.0948/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.439% to close at US$1.0947/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0900-1.1100, targeting 1.0805-1.0775 and 1.0770-1.0640 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0805-1.0450 with risk below 1.0400 targeting 1.0890 and 1.1020-1.1105-1.1145.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2641/GBP, a high of US$1.2809/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.608% to close at US$1.2807/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2790-1.2050 with a target of 1.2670-1.2730 and 1.2790-1.2850-1.2890 with a stop loss closing below 1.2050. Sell in between 1.2845-1.3120 with targets at 1.2790-1.2760-1.2690 and 1.2630-1.2540-1.2490 with a stop loss of 1.2950.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday made an intra‐day low of JPY147.57/USD an intraday high of 149.37/USD, and settled the day down by 0.877% at JPY148.03/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 148.10-153.50 with risk above 153.90 targeting 148.10 and 146.95-146.50-145.80. Long positions above 147.40-140.90 with targets of 148.10-148.90-149.50 and 150.50-151.30-151.90 with stops below 140.00.