Daily Forex Guide
Gold - XAU Silver - XAG Oil - WTI EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY

Daily Markets

  • The dollar was steady against the yuan on Tuesday as markets digested policy statements out of China that were short on big stimulus measures, while a rebound in Tokyo inflation seemed to take Japan a step closer to the end of negative interest rates. Crypto mania is still running wild, with bitcoin trading near $66,000, having surged to $68,828 earlier in the session, just shy of the record peak of $68,999.99 it touched in November 2021. The largest cryptocurrency by market value is up around 57% this year, benefiting from flows into exchange-traded funds launched in the United States. Early news out of China's National People's Congress (NPC) contained few surprises, with Beijing sticking with an ambitious economic growth target of 5% and a budget deficit of 3%. Analysts say meeting the target will be a challenge as a protracted property crisis, low consumption, slow global growth and geopolitical tensions drag on activity. The Japanese yen held steady after data showed Tokyo core inflation sped up to 2.5% in February, from 1.8% the previous month. A measure excluding food and energy did slow to 3.1%, but stayed above the Bank of Japan's 2% target. Many analysts expect the BOJ to move negative rates to zero in April if Japan's spring wage negotiations result in solid pay hikes, which should boost consumer spending. A break higher would open the way to November's top at 151.92, but would also run the risk of provoking Japanese intervention. Markets currently imply around a 64% chance the Federal Reserve will start cutting U.S. rates in June and ease by around 75 basis points this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has a chance to update investors on his own outlook when he appears before lawmakers on Wednesday and Thursday. The European Central Bank (ECB) meets on Thursday and markets are convinced it will keep rates at 4.0%. Futures imply an 88% probability that cuts will start in June and have priced in 89 basis points of easing for 2024.

 

Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
5th March 2024 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 2,120-2,129 2,140-2,160 2,172-2,180
Silver-XAG 23.90 24.60-24.90 25.45-25.90
Crude Oil 79.00-79.90-80.80 81.50-82.00 83.30-84.00
EURO/USD 1.0890-1.0950 1.1020-1.1060 1.1100
GBP/USD 1.2700-1.2760 1.2790-1.2845 1.2890-1.2950
USD/JPY 150.60-151.30 151.90 152.50-153.90
Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
5th March 2024 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 2,100-2,088 2,074-2,066 2,058-2,048
Silver-XAG 23.50-22.90-22.20 21.90-21.50 21.00-20.65
Crude Oil 78.00-77.30 -76.50-75.75 74.40-73.70
EURO/USD 1.0805-1.0765-1.0690 1.0650-1.0590 1.0510-1.0450
GBP/USD 1.2670-1.2610-1.2540 1.2500-1.2448 1.2400-1.2330
USD/JPY 149.90-149.30-148.90-148.10 147.40-146.50 145.80-145.00

Intra-Day Strategy (5th March 2024)
GOLD-XAU Sell on Strength
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

Daily Forex Guide

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$2119.79/oz and low of $2079.37/oz. Gold is up by 1.549% at US$2114.23/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (1953). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 1,927. The MACD is currently below the zero line but the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 45.31, which is in the neutral region, suggesting there may be more selling pressure before it rebounds. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the oversold territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell in between 2088-2161 keeping stop loss closing above 2161, targeting 2074-2066-2058 and 2048-2038-2024. Buy in between 2074-2008 with risk below 2008 targeting 2088-2100-2120 and 2129-2140-2160.

Intraday Support Levels
S1     2,100-2,088
S2     2,074-2,066
S3     2,058-2,048

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     2,120-2,129
R2     2,140-2,160
R3     2,172-2,180

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

76.418

Buy
20-DMA   2034.79 Buy
50-DMA  

2036.52

Buy
100-DMA   2015 Buy
200-DMA   1958.79 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   62.394 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   15.907 Buy

Silver - XAG

Daily Forex Guide

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$23.92/oz and low of US$23.02/oz settle up by 3.23% at US$23.87/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (22.91), breakage above will lead to 23.51. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend, bringing a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 23.50-19.30, targeting 23.90-24.60 and 25.00-25.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 19.00. Sell in between 23.90-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50 targeting 23.20-22.40-21.90 and 21.50-20.90-20.50.

Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.50-22.90-22.20
S2     21.90-21.50
S3     21.00-20.65

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     23.90
R2     24.60-24.90
R3     25.45-25.90
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.657 Buy
20-DMA   22.77 Buy
50-DMA   23.11 Buy
100-DMA   23.10 Buy
200-DMA   22.09 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   67.616 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.009 Buy

Oil - WTI

Daily Forex Guide

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$79.88/bbl, an intraday low of US$78.19/bbl, and settled down by 1.449% to close at US78.38/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 79.00-83.30 with stop loss at 83.30; targeting 79.00-78.00-76.50 and 75.75-74.40-73.70. Buy above 77.75-71.00 with risk daily closing below 71.00; targeting 79.00 and 79.90-80.80.

Intraday Support Levels
S1     78.00-77.30
S2     -76.50-75.75
S3     74.40-73.70

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     79.00-79.90-80.80
R2     81.50-82.00
R3     83.30-84.00
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.57 Sell
20-DMA   75.46 Sell
50-DMA   73.54 Sell
100-DMA   77.38 Sell
200-DMA   77.38 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   58.95 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.480 Buy

EUR/USD

Daily Forex Guide

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.0829/EUR, a high of US$1.0866/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.195% to close at US$1.0854/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0890-1.1100, targeting 1.0805-1.0775 and 1.0770-1.0640 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0805-1.0450 with risk below 1.0400 targeting 1.0890 and 1.1020-1.1105-1.1145.

Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0805-1.0765-1.0690
S2     1.0650-1.0590
S3     1.0510-1.0450

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0890-1.0950
R2     1.1020-1.1060
R3     1.1100
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.400 Buy
20-DMA   1.0791 Sell
50-DMA   1.0882 Buy
100-DMA   1.0795 Buy
200-DMA   1.0824 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   77.847 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0025 Buy

GBP/USD

Daily Forex Guide

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2641/GBP, a high of US$1.2705/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.359% to close at US$1.2690/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.2297) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2650-1.2050 with a target of 1.2670-1.2730 and 1.2790-1.2850-1.2890 with a stop loss closing below 1.2050. Sell in between 1.2690-1.2950 with targets at 1.2690-1.2630-1.2540 and 1.2490-1.2440-1.2390 with a stop loss of 1.2950.

Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2670-1.2610-1.2540
S2     1.2500-1.2448
S3     1.2400-1.2330

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2700-1.2760
R2     1.2790-1.2845
R3     1.2890-1.2950
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

38.22

Buy
20-DMA   1.2688 Sell
50-DMA   1.2674 Sell
100-DMA   1.2469 Sell
200-DMA   1.2560 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   38.071 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0045 Sell

USD/JPY

Daily Forex Guide

USD/JPY on Monday made an intra‐day low of JPY149.83/USD an intraday high of 150.56/USD, and settled the day up by 0.390% at JPY150.51/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 150.60-153.50 with risk above 153.90 targeting 149.90-149.30-148.90 and 146.95-146.50-145.80. Long positions above 149.90-140.90 with targets of 150.50-151.30-151.90 and 152.30-153.90 with stops below 140.00.

Intraday Support Levels
S1     149.90-149.30-148.90-148.10
S2     147.40-146.50
S3     145.80-145.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     150.60-151.30
R2     151.90
R3     152.50-153.90
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.09 Buy
20-DMA   148.33 Buy
50-DMA   145.79 Sell
100-DMA   147.67 Buy
200-DMA   145.11 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   91.608 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.0887 Sell

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