Daily Markets

• The U.S. dollar drifted within a tight range on Monday, pressured by lower Treasury yields, as traders waited for more crucial economic data for fresh clues on the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Bitcoin rose to a more than two-year peak amid big flows into cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds. The yen fluctuated around the closely watched 150 per dollar level, as investors tried to assess whether the Bank of Japan's exit from its negative interest rate policy could happen as soon as this month. This week brings manufacturing and services ISM readings on Tuesday, with the main event on Friday in the form of monthly payrolls figures. Meanwhile, the dollar added 0.1% to 150.28 yen, as traders assessed cautious comments from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda from late last week that it was too early to conclude that the central bank's inflation target is close to being met. That contrasted with hawkish remarks from BOJ board member Hajime Takata earlier the same day, that had sent the yen to a more than two-week high of 149.21 per dollar. Markets are weighing whether the BOJ will end its negative interest policy at its March 18-19 meeting, or wait until April or later. Policy makers have repeatedly stressed the need to see continued wage growth, and the outcome of crucial spring salary negotiations will be known on March 13 for Japan's biggest firms. Most economists expect the ECB will first cut rates at its June meeting, but will be hoping for additional clues on the timing from central bank head Christine Lagarde's press conference. The largest cryptocurrency by market value has gained 50% this year and most of the rise came in the last few weeks where trading volume has surged for U.S.-listed bitcoin funds after their approval earlier this year.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$2088.20/oz and low of $2039.01/oz. Gold is up by 1.917% at US$2083.01/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (1953). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 1,927. The MACD is currently below the zero line but the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 45.31, which is in the neutral region, suggesting there may be more selling pressure before it rebounds. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the oversold territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell in between 2088-2161 keeping stop loss closing above 2161, targeting 2074-2066-2058 and 2048-2038-2024. Buy in between 2074-2008 with risk below 2008 targeting 2088-2100-2120 and 2129-2140-2160.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$23.25/oz and low of US$22.49/oz settle up by 2.16% at US$23.12/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (22.91), breakage above will lead to 23.51. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend, bringing a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 22.75-19.30, targeting 23.50-24.60 and 25.00-25.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 19.00. Sell in between 23.30-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50 targeting 22.40-21.90 and 21.50-20.90-20.50.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$80.31/bbl, an intraday low of US$77.63/bbl, and settled up by 0.118% to close at US79.32/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 79.90-83.30 with stop loss at 83.30; targeting 79.00-78.00-76.50 and 75.75-74.40-73.70. Buy above 76.75-71.00 with risk daily closing below 71.00; targeting 77.30-78.00-79.00 and 79.90-80.80.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0795/EUR, a high of US$1.08425/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.3285% to close at US$1.0839/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0890-1.1100, targeting 1.0805-1.0775 and 1.0770-1.0640 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0805-1.0450 with risk below 1.0400 targeting 1.0890 and 1.1020-1.1105-1.1145.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2599/GBP, a high of US$1.2633/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.182% to close at US$1.2654/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.2297) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2610-1.2050 with a target of 1.2670-1.2730 and 1.2790-1.2850-1.2890 with a stop loss closing below 1.2050. Sell in between 1.2670-1.2950 with targets at 1.2690-1.2630-1.2540 and 1.2490-1.2440-1.2390 with a stop loss of 1.2950.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday made an intra‐day low of JPY149.24/USD an intraday high of 150.87/USD, and settled the day up by 0.108% at JPY150.76/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 150.60-153.50 with risk above 153.90 targeting 149.90-149.30-148.90 and 146.95-146.50-145.80. Long positions above 149.90-140.90 with targets of 150.50-151.30-151.90 and 152.30-153.90 with stops below 140.00.