Daily Markets

• The dollar was on the front foot on Monday ahead of a packed week filled with key economic releases that will provide further clues on the global interest rate outlook, with a U.S. inflation reading taking centre stage. The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation - is due on Thursday, where expectations are for a 0.4% increase on a monthly basis Inflation figures in the euro zone, Japan and Australia also fill the data calendar this week, alongside a rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and PMI readings in China. Ahead of the releases, the greenback edged broadly higher, pushing the Australian dollar down 0.16% to $0.6553, while the New Zealand dollar fell 0.5% to $0.6167. The kiwi had risen 1.2% last week, helped by broad dollar weakness and the risk of a rate hike from the RBNZ on Wednesday, though most economists expect the central bank to keep rates steady. Japan's nationwide consumer prices are due on Tuesday and are forecast to show core inflation slowed to an annual rate of 1.8% in January, the lowest since March 2022. That would complicate the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) plans to end negative interest rates in coming months, keeping the yen under pressure in the near term. The Japanese currency was last marginally higher at 150.47 per dollar, having already fallen more than 6% against the greenback this year due to the stark interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan. The latest U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data shows short positions on the yen have jumped to roughly $10 billion as of last week, the largest since November. In contrast, a recent run of higher-than-expected U.S. producer prices and consumer prices have kept the risks to Thursday's core PCE price index data skewed to the upside, which would further push back expectations for a slew of Fed cuts this year. Markets are currently pricing in just about a 20% chance that the Fed will begin easing rates in May, as compared to a nearly 90% chance a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$2041.28/oz and low of $2015.98/oz. Gold is up by 0.565% at US$2035.56/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (1953). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 1,927. The MACD is currently below the zero line but the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 45.31, which is in the neutral region, suggesting there may be more selling pressure before it rebounds. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the oversold territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell in between 2036-2061 keeping stop loss closing above 2061, targeting 1985-1974-1965 and 1955-1948. Buy in between 2024-1950 with risk below 1950 targeting 2000-2020-2039 and 2050-2058-2064.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$22.98/oz and low of US$22.54/oz settle up by 1.07% at US$22.95/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (22.91), breakage above will lead to 23.51. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend, bringing a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 22.75-19.30, targeting 23.50-24.60 and 25.00-25.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 19.00. Sell in between 23.30-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50 targeting 22.40-21.90 and 21.50-20.90-20.50.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$78.18/bbl, an intraday low of US$76.20/bbl, and settled down by 2.10% to close at US76.46/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 76.50-81.00 with stop loss at 77.50; targeting 76.50-75.75-74.40 and 73.70-72.90-72.00. Buy above 75.75-71.00 with risk daily closing below 71.00; targeting 77.30-78.00-79.00 and 79.90-80.80.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0811/EUR, a high of US$1.0839/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.008% to close at US$1.0820/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0890-1.1100, targeting 1.0805-1.0775 and 1.0770-1.0640 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0805-1.0450 with risk below 1.0400 targeting 1.0890 and 1.1020-1.1105-1.1145.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2647/GBP, a high of US$1.2700/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.104% to close at US$1.2672/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.2297) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2610-1.2050 with a target of 1.2670-1.2730 and 1.2790-1.2850-1.2890 with a stop loss closing below 1.2050. Sell in between 1.2670-1.2950 with targets at 1.2690-1.2630-1.2540 and 1.2490-1.2440-1.2390 with a stop loss of 1.2950.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday made an intra‐day low of JPY150.28/USD an intraday high of 150.76/USD, and settled the day up by 0.0093% at JPY150.52 /USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 150.60-153.50 with risk above 153.90 targeting 149.90-149.30-148.90 and 146.95-146.50-145.80. Long positions above 149.40-140.90 with targets of 150.50-151.30-151.90 and 152.30-153.90 with stops below 140.00.