Daily Markets

• The dollar held steady on Monday after ticking higher for a fifth straight week on the back of strong inflation data, while the yen traded near the psychologically important 150 level. U.S. markets are closed for the Presidents' Day holiday, with trading volumes likely to be low throughout the day. It rose to its highest since mid-November last Tuesday at 104.97 after figures showed U.S. inflation came in stronger than expected in January, causing investors to dial down the number of interest rate cuts they expect from the Federal Reserve this year. But it slipped on Thursday after data showed retail sales fell last month. Survey-based purchasing managers' index data, released on Thursday, will give a sense of the health of the euro zone and UK economies in February. The minutes from the Fed's last meeting, due on Wednesday, are likely to be the main release for investors this week. Investors expect around 90 basis points of Fed rate cuts this year, according to money market pricing, down sharply from around 145 basis points at the start of February. It remains around 6% higher against the yen this year as Japan has kept its ultra-loose monetary policy in place, creating a wide gap between the two countries' bond yields which has boosted the attractiveness of the dollar. The rally has prompted speculation among investors that the Japanese authorities could intervene to boost their currency. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki last week warned that "rapid moves are undesirable for the economy". Weekly data from the U.S. markets regulator showed speculators again increased their net short position against the yen, taking it to a more than two-month high worth $9.2 billion.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$2015.07/oz and low of $1955.11/oz. Gold is up by 0.460% at US$2013.34/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (1953). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 1,927. The MACD is currently below the zero line but the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 45.31, which is in the neutral region, suggesting there may be more selling pressure before it rebounds. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the oversold territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell in between 2024-2061 keeping stop loss closing above 2061, targeting 1985-1974-1965 and 1955-1948. Buy in between 2000-1950 with risk below 1950 targeting 2000-2020-2039 and 2050-2058-2064.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$23.48/oz and low of US$22.73/oz settle up by 0.221% at US$23.42/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (22.91), breakage above will lead to 23.51. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend, bringing a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 21.90-19.30, targeting 22.80-23.50-24.60 and 25.00-25.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 19.00. Sell in between 23.30-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50 targeting 22.40-21.90 and 21.50-20.90-20.50.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$78.44/bbl, an intraday low of US$76.61/bbl, and settled up by 0.0732% to close at US76.61/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 78.10-81.00 with stop loss at 77.50; targeting 76.50-75.75-74.40 and 73.70-72.90-72.00. Buy above 77.50-71.00 with risk daily closing below 71.00; targeting 77.30-78.00-79.00 and 79.90-80.80.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0731/EUR, a high of US$1.07869/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.0154% to close at US$1.0770/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0790-1.1100, targeting 1.0805-1.0775 and 1.0770-1.0640 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0690-1.0450 with risk below 1.0400 targeting 1.0765-1.0805-1.0890 and 1.1020-1.1105-1.1145.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2550/GBP, a high of US$1.2632/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.0158% to close at US$1.2600/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.2297) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2610-1.2050 with a target of 1.2670-1.2730 and 1.2790-1.2850-1.2890 with a stop loss closing below 1.2050. Sell in between 1.2650-1.2950 with targets at 1.2690-1.2630-1.2540 and 1.2490-1.2440-1.2390 with a stop loss of 1.2950.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday made an intra‐day low of JPY149.812/USD an intraday high of 150.64/USD, and settled the day up by 0.202% at JPY150.19/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 150.60-153.50 with risk above 153.90 targeting 149.90-149.30-148.90 and 146.95-146.50-145.80. Long positions above 149.10-140.90 with targets of 150.50-151.30-151.90 and 152.30-153.90 with stops below 140.00.