Daily Markets

• The dollar flirted with the psychological threshold of 150 yen on Tuesday and held broadly steady ahead of a key reading on U.S. inflation due later in the day, while bitcoin surged to a more than two-year high. Trading was largely subdued in Asia with markets in China and Hong Kong still closed for the Lunar New Year holidays and traders on guard ahead of Tuesday's release of consumer prices data in the world's largest economy. The greenback rose to an over two-month high of 149.58 yen, edging toward the closely-watched 150 level that analysts said would likely trigger further jawboning from Japanese officials in an attempt to support the currency. The yen, which has already tumbled more than 5% against the dollar year-to-date, is under persistent pressure as investors pare back their expectations of the scale and pace of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle. Yen bears are also being emboldened by signs the Bank of Japan will resist aggressively hiking rates even if it exits negative interest rates this year as markets are wagering. A recent run of resilient economic data out in the United States, particularly a blowout jobs report out this month, have heightened expectations that U.S. rates are likely to stay higher for longer. Markets are now pricing in just about 110 basis points of rate cuts from the Fed this year beginning in May, down from about 160 bps at the end of last year. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in its January Survey of Consumer Expectations on Monday that inflation forecasts for a year and five years from now were unchanged at readings of 3% and 2.5%, respectively. The projected rise in inflation three years from now dropped to 2.4%, the lowest since March 2020, from December's 2.6%. The world's largest cryptocurrency has risen nearly 18% this year, helped by last month's regulatory nod for U.S.-listed exchange traded funds (ETFs) designed to track its price.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$2027.51/oz and low of $2011.84/oz. Gold is down by 0.203% at US$2019.83/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (1953). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 1,927. The MACD is currently below the zero line but the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 45.31, which is in the neutral region, suggesting there may be more selling pressure before it rebounds. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the oversold territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell in between 2038-2100 keeping stop loss closing above 2107, targeting 2020-2005-1990. Buy in between 2020-1990 with risk below 1990 targeting 2039-2050-2058 and 2064-2080-2094.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$23.05/oz and low of US$22.49/oz settle up by 0.461% at US$22.67/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (22.91), breakage above will lead to 23.51. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend, bringing a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 22.40-19.30, targeting 22.80-23.50-24.60 and 25.00-25.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 19.00. Sell in between 23.10-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50 targeting 22.40-21.90 and 21.50-20.90-20.50.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$76.98/bbl, an intraday low of US$75.49/bbl, and settled up by 0.0452% to close at US76.81/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 77.30-81.00 with stop loss at 77.50; targeting 76.50-75.75-74.40 and 73.70-72.90-72.00. Buy above 76.50-71.00 with risk daily closing below 71.00; targeting 77.30-78.00-79.00 and 79.90-80.80.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on made an intraday low of US$1.0761/EUR, a high of US$1.0794/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.0825% to close at US$1.0785/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0765-1.1100, targeting 1.0805-1.0775 and 1.0770-1.0640 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0710-1.0450 with risk below 1.0400 targeting 1.0765-1.0805-1.0890 and 1.1020-1.1105-1.1145.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2605/GBP, a high of US$1.2653/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.0982% to close at US$1.2627/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.2297) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2580-1.2050 with a target of 1.2730-1.2790-1.2850 and 1.2890-1.2950 1.2990-1.3040 with a stop loss closing below 1.2050. Sell in between 1.2690-1.2950 with targets at 1.2690-1.2630-1.2540 and 1.2490-1.2440-1.2390 with a stop loss of 1.2950.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made an intra‐day low of JPY148.92/USD an intraday high of 149.47/USD, and settled the day up by 0.0844% at JPY149.32/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 149.30-151.50 with risk above 151.90 targeting 146.95-146.50145.80 and 145.00-144.0-143.00. Long positions above 148.10-140.90 with targets of 148.85-149.30 and 149.90-150.50 with stops below 140.00.