Daily Markets

• The U.S. dollar was trading in a tight range on Thursday as traders digested less dovish remarks from policymakers overnight and looked ahead to fresh economic data from the United States. Overnight, several Fed speakers gave a range of reasons for feeling little urgency to start easing policy in the United States soon or to move quickly once they do. The market is pricing in an 18.5% chance the Fed will begin to cut rates in March, down significantly from the start of the year, according to CME Group's (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch Tool. Traders see a nearly 60% chance of a 25 basis point cut in May. The greenback slipped somewhat after rising above its 100-day moving average on Monday and Tuesday for the first time since late November, propelled by Friday's surging U.S. jobs data. The dollar index, a measure of the U.S. currency against six major peers, was last hovered around 104.00. The U.S. currency will need a fresh push to test resistance levels around 104.60 and 104.80, with the consumer price index (CPI) for January released on Feb. 13 the likely first opportunity, said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG. The Japanese yen weakened 0.25% versus the greenback at 148.53 after BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said the central bank is unlikely to raise interest rates aggressively, even after exiting negative interest rates. The offshore yuan held steady despite data that showed China's consumer prices fell at their steepest pace in more than 14 years in January. CPI fell 0.8% in January from a year earlier, but rose 0.3% month-on-month, data revealed. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.5% fall year-on-year and a 0.4% gain month-on-month. The producer price index (PPI) slid 2.5% from a year earlier in January, compared with a 2.6% slide forecast in the Reuters poll. The currency got support as China's stock market stabilised following the appointment of a new securities regulatory head, buoying sentiment despite the disappointing data.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$2044.50/oz and low of $2030.54/oz. Gold is down by 0.045% at US$2034.85/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (1953). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 1,927. The MACD is currently below the zero line but the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 45.31, which is in the neutral region, suggesting there may be more selling pressure before it rebounds. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the oversold territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell in between 2038-2100 keeping stop loss closing above 2107, targeting 2020-2005-1990. Buy in between 2030-1990 with risk below 1990 targeting 2039-2050-2058 and 2064-2080-2094.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$22.43/oz and low of US$22.17/oz settle down by 0.932% at US$22.19/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (22.91), breakage above will lead to 23.51. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend, bringing a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 22.10-19.30, targeting 22.80-23.50-24.60 and 25.00-25.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 19.00. Sell in between 22.60-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50 targeting 22.40-21.90 and 21.50-20.90-20.50.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$74.22/bbl, an intraday low of US$73.24/bbl, and settled up by 0.824% to close at US74.08/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 74.40-77.30 with stop loss at 77.50; targeting 72.00-71.10-70.50 and 69.90-69.10. Buy above 73.70-69.00 with risk daily closing below 69.00; targeting 74.40 and 75.75-76.50-77.30.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.0767/EUR, a high of US$1.0783/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.162% to close at US$1.0785/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0765-1.1100, targeting 1.0805-1.0775 and 1.0770-1.0640 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0710-1.0450 with risk below 1.0400 targeting 1.0765-1.0805-1.0890 and 1.1020-1.1105-1.1145.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2588/GBP, a high of US$1.2641/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.225% to close at US$1.2624/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.2297) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2580-1.2050 with a target of 1.2730-1.2790-1.2850 and 1.2890-1.2950 1.2990-1.3040 with a stop loss closing below 1.2050. Sell in between 1.2690-1.2950 with targets at 1.2690-1.2630-1.2540 and 1.2490-1.2440-1.2390 with a stop loss of 1.2950.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of JPY148.42/USD an intraday high of 149.23/USD, and settled the day down by 0.4923% at JPY148.49/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 148.90-151.50 with risk above 151.90 targeting 146.95-146.50145.80 and 145.00-144.0-143.00. Long positions above 148.10-140.90 with targets of 148.85-149.30 and 149.90-150.50 with stops below 140.00.