Daily Markets

• The dollar index climbed for a fifth straight session on Thursday after labor market data showed job growth, keeping expectations for an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in check. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 187,000 for the week ended Jan. 13, the lowest level since September 2022, the Labor Department said on Thursday, short of the 207,000 expectation of economists polled by Reuters. The data followed a stronger than expected retail sales report on Wednesday. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of six peers, was up 0.14% at 103.47, after reaching 103.69 on Wednesday, its highest since Dec. 13. It was on track for its fifth straight session of gains, its longest streak since August. Expectations for a cut from the Fed in March of at least 25 basis points (bps) are currently at 57.1%, according to CME's FedWatch Tool, compared with 55.5% in the prior session and a decline from the 73.2% a week ago. A separate report from the U.S. Commerce Department showed single-family homebuilding took a breather in December after a recent stretch of gains. New construction remains underpinned by a shortage of previously owned houses for sale. Fed officials, including Governor Christopher Waller this week, have pushed back against expectations of an aggressive round of rate cuts, suggesting the speed and timing will be slower than market participants had initially priced in. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on Thursday he was open to reducing U.S. interest rates sooner than the third quarter he had anticipated if there was "convincing" evidence in coming months that inflation is falling faster than he expected. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is scheduled to hold a policy meeting next Monday and Tuesday, and is likely to maintain its ultra-loose monetary settings. The euro was down 0.14% at $1.0866 after accounts from the European Central Bank's December meeting showed policymakers appeared fairly confident that inflation was heading back to target, but saw risks that still warranted steady policy and high borrowing costs. Sterling was up 0.17% at $1.269, building on gains from the prior session when data showed inflation unexpectedly accelerated in December, buttressing expectations the Bank of England will be slower to cut rates than its peers.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$2023.17/oz and low of $2004.58/oz. Gold is up by 0.850% at US$2022.95/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (1953). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 1,927. The MACD is currently below the zero line but the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 45.31, which is in the neutral region, suggesting there may be more selling pressure before it rebounds. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the oversold territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell in between 2029-2100 keeping stop loss closing above 2107, targeting 2020-2005-1990. Buy in between 2020-1990 with risk below 1990 targeting 2039-2050-2058 and 2064-2080-2094.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$23.51/oz and low of US$22.73/oz settled up by 0.914% at US$23.19/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (22.91), breakage above will lead to 23.51. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend, bringing a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 22.40-19.30, targeting 23.50-24.60 and 25.00-25.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 19.00. Sell in between 23.00-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50 targeting 22.40-21.90 and 21.50-20.90-20.50.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$74.16/bbl, an intraday low of US$72.09/bbl, and settled up by 1.535% to close at US73.84/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 74.00-76.70 with stop loss at 77.00; targeting 72.90-71.50-70.30 and 69.40-68.90-68.00. Buy above 72.90-67.35 with risk daily closing below 67.00; targeting 74.00 and 74.90-75.75-76.50.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.0846/EUR, a high of US$1.0906/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.0567% to close at US$1.0875/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0950-1.1100, targeting 1.0890-1.0820 and 1.0775-1.0770-1.0640 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0890-1.0650 with risk below 1.0490 targeting 1.1020-1.1105-1.1145-1.1200 and 1.1245-1.1275.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2647/GBP, a high of US$1.2706/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.2334% to close at US$1.2704/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.2297) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2650-1.2050 with a target of 1.2730-1.2790-1.2850 and 1.2890-1.2950 1.2990-1.3040 with a stop loss closing below 1.2050. Sell in between 1.2720-1.2950 with targets at 1.2690-1.2630-1.2540 and 1.2490-1.2440-1.2390 with a stop loss of 1.2950.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday made an intra‐day low of JPY147.65/USD, an intraday high of JPY148.29/USD, and settled the day up by 0.004% at JPY148.14/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 147.90-150.50 with risk above 151.00 targeting 146.95-146.50145.80 and 145.00-144.0-143.00. Long positions above 146.80-140.90 with targets of 148.00-148.55-149.20 and 149.90-150.50 with stops below 140.00.