Daily Markets

• Oil rose on Wednesday, firming its ground near a 10-month peak reached during trading a day earlier, as the market balanced supply concerns over Libya output and OPEC+ cuts with global macroeconomic headwinds. Both benchmarks surged nearly 2% on Tuesday to close at their highest levels since November 2022. The news of OPEC member Libya shutting four of its eastern oil export terminals due to a deadly storm also lent support to oil prices, he added. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stuck to its forecasts for robust growth in global oil demand in 2023 and 2024, citing signs that major economies are faring better than expected despite headwinds such as high interest rates and elevated inflation. Keeping supplies tight, Saudi Arabia and Russia last week extended voluntary supply cuts of a combined 1.3 million bpd to year end. OPEC, Russia and allied producers are known as OPEC+. Russian oil production is seen declining by 1.5% to 527 million metric tons (10.54 million barrels per day) this year, newspaper Izvestia reported on Wednesday, citing an interview with Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov. The EIA, meanwhile, said global oil inventories were expected to fall by almost a half million bpd in the second half of 2023, causing oil prices to rise with Brent averaging $93 per barrel in the fourth quarter. But U.S. crude oil, distillate and gasoline stockpiles rose last week, according to market sources citing API figures on Wednesday. Crude stocks rose by about 1.2 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 8, against analysts estimate of a draw of about 1.9 million barrels. Gasoline inventories rose by about 4.2 million barrels, while distillate inventories rose by about 2.6 million barrels. The market also awaited U.S. inflation data due on Wednesday, with the year-on-year core consumer price index increase expected to moderate to 4.3% in August from a 4.7% gain in July. Investors will focus on whether a softer core inflation reading will be sufficient for the Federal Reserves to keep rates on hold into next year.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1924.37/oz and low of $1907.53/oz. Gold is down by 0.468% at US$1913.53/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold is currently trading higher than 200DMA (1906). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 1,874. The MACD is currently below the zero line but the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 45.31, which is in the neutral region, suggesting that there may be more selling pressure before it rebounds. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the oversold territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell in between 1922-1970 keeping stop loss closing above 1970, targeting 1909-1890-1881 and 1870-1861. Buy in between 1909-1851 with risk below 1851 targeting 1922-1936-1946 and 1960-1976-1990.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$23.20/oz and low of US$22.89/oz settled up by 0.672% at US$23.05/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (22.91), breakage above will lead to 23.51. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend, bringing a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 22.90-19.30, targeting 23.50-24.60-25.00 and 25.90-26.30 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 24.00-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50; targeting 22.90-22.05 and 21.60-21.00.

Oil - WTI

Crude Ol on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$88.72/bbl, an intraday low of US$86.547/bbl, and settled up by 1.733% to close at US8.18/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover for confirmation of a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 87.00-90.00 with stop loss at 90.00; targeting 86.00-85.60-85.00 and 84.50-83.60-82.50. Buy above 86.00-81.40 with risk daily closing below 81.40; targeting 87.00-87.50-88.10 and 89.00-89.90.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.0704/EUR, a high of US$1.0768/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.0362% to close at US$1.0753/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0750-1.1100, targeting 1.0690-1.0630-1.0590 and 1.0500-1.0450 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0705-1.0450 with risk below 1.0450 targeting 1.0750-1.0800-1.0870 and 1.0940-1.1060-1.1150.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2458/GBP, a high of US$1.2529/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.162% to close at US$1.2487/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2112) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2490-1.2300 with a target of 1.2600-1.2650-1.2800 and 1.2855-1.2900-1.2990 with a stop loss closing below 1.2400. Sell in between 1.2540-1.3200 with targets at 1.2450-1.2390-1.2300 and 1.2210-1.2150 with a stop loss of 1.3140.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of JPY146.42/USD, an intraday high of JPY147.22/USD, and settled the day up by 0.345% at JPY147.07/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 148.00-150.10 with risk above 150.20 targeting 145.20-144.00-143.60 and 143.00-142.20-141.00. Long positions above 147.10-139.90 with targets of 148.00 and 148.80-149.50-150.10 with stops below 134.00.