Daily Markets

• Oil prices fell marginally on Friday as investors weighed optimistic demand forecasts from the OPEC producer group against mixed economic data in top importer China. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)said on Thursday it expects world oil demand to rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, compared with growth of 2.44 million bpd in 2023. Both forecasts were unchanged from last month. In 2024, "solid" economic growth amid continued improvements in China is expected to boost oil consumption, it added. Market sentiment was also lifted by Thursday's U.S. consumer prices data for July, which fuelled speculation the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its aggressive rate hike cycle. However, Teng also noted that "China’s sluggish economic data and the retreat on Wall Street weighs on risk sentiment, and a strengthened USD also pressured commodity prices". While customs data showed crude imports up year-on-year, China's overall exports plunged 14.5% on last year, with monthly crude imports retreating from June's near-record highs to the lowest levels since January. Data this week also showed China's consumer prices fell into deflation and factory gate prices extended declines in July, raising concerns about fuel demand in the world's second-largest economy. On the supply side, prices have been supported by extensions to output cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, alongside supply fears driven by the potential for conflict between Russia and Ukraine to disrupt Russian oil shipments in the Black Sea region. Baden Moore, head of commodity and carbon strategy markets at National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY) said crude markets were likely to show a supply deficit through the second half of this year, but it would be by less than OPEC's forecast for a deficit of around 2 million barrels a day in the September quarter. "Although our supply deficit forecast is lower, we expect it is enough to push prices over US$90/bbl through 2H23," Moore added.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1930.08/oz and low of $1911.99/oz. Gold is down by 0.125% at US$1912.10/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold is currently trading higher than 200DMA (1906). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 1,874. The MACD is currently below the zero line but the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 45.31, which is in the neutral region, suggesting that there may be more selling pressure before it rebounds. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the oversold territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1930-2009 keeping stop loss closing above 2009, targeting 1920-1928-1943 and 1954-1944-1934. Buy in between 1907-1,871 with risk below 1874 targeting 1946-1960-1976 and 1985-2000-2009.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$22.98/oz and low of US$22.61/oz settled down by 0.225% at US$22.68/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (22.91), breakage above will lead to 23.51. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend, bringing a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 22.60-18.30, targeting 22.90-23.40-24.10 and 25.00-25.90-26.30 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 23.00-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50; targeting 23.00 and 22.05-21.60-21.00.

Oil - WTI

Crude Ol on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$84.30/bbl, an intraday low of US82.17/bbl, and settled down by 1.450% to close at US82.42/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover for confirmation of a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 82.50-85.00 with stop loss at 85.00; targeting 80.50-79.70-78.90 and 78.00-77.10-76.00. Buy above 81.90-77.40 with risk daily closing below 77.40; targeting 83.40 and 84.00-85.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.0966/EUR, a high of US$1.1064/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.421% to close at US$1.0980/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1120-1.1390, targeting 1.0940-1.0900-1.0840 and 1.0790-1.0750-1.0660 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1390. Buy above 1.09990-1.0705 with risk below 1.0725 targeting 1.1060-1.1150 and 1.1210-1.1250-1.1290.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2668/GBP, a high of US$1.2817/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.320% to close at US$1.2674/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2112) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2710-1.2400 with a target of 1.2800-1.2855-1.2900 and 1.2990-1.3050-1.3140 with a stop loss closing below 1.2400. Sell in between 1.2800-1.3200 with targets at 1.2710-1.2650-1.2590 and 1.2520-1.2450 with a stop loss should be 1.3140.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday made an intra‐day low of JPY143.26/USD, an intraday high of JPY144.80/USD, and settled the day up by 0.695% at JPY144.71/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 144.20-148.00 with risk above 148.00 targeting 143.60-143.00-142.20 and 141.00-139.50-138.30. Long positions above 143.60-134.90 with targets of 142.20-143.00-144.20 and 145.00-146.00with stops below 134.00.