Daily Markets

• Oil prices surged by almost 1% on Wednesday, trading near their highest since April, as crude and fuel products inventory data showing robust demand from the world's biggest fuel consumer, the U.S., offset demand concerns elsewhere. U.S. oil inventories fell by 15.4 million barrels in the week ended July 28, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures, compared with analysts' estimates for a drop of 1.37 million barrels. If the U.S. government figures, due later on Wednesday, match the industry drawdown number, it would mark the largest drop in U.S. crude inventories according to records dating back to 1982. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels, the API data showed, compared with estimates for a 1.3 million barrel drop. Distillate stocks fell by 510,000 barrels, compared with analysts' estimates for a build of 112,000 barrels. Both are indicators of robust prompt fuel demand in the U.S. Crude oil inventories have also begun to drop in other regions as demand outpaces supply, which has been constrained by deep production cuts from Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that has provided price support. Analysts expect Saudi Arabia to extend its voluntary oil output cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) for another month to include September in a meeting of producers on Friday. Oil prices may continue to rise, but they may not exceed $90 a barrel given recessionary pressures in some regions such as Europe, said Li. Furthermore, after the summer demand peak passes, "oil prices have entered the end of this round of upward trend", he said. Concerns that oil buying in China, the world's biggest oil importer, may slow as prices rise and weak PMI data released this week indicate fuel demand may be weaker than expected limited the session's price gains.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1965.85/oz and low of $1941.17/oz. Gold is down by 1.09% at US$1943.93/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1894) and breakage below will call for 1871. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are also decreasing trend, which will bring more downward stances in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory, giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1960-2009 keeping stop loss closing above 2009, targeting 1954-1944-1934 and 1900-1894-1885. Buy in between 1950-1,871 with risk below 1874 targeting 1960-1976-1985 and 2000-2009.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$24.74/oz and low of US$24.11/oz settled down by 1.86% at US$24.27/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (22.91), breakage above will lead to 23.51. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend, bringing a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.20-18.30, targeting 25.00-25.90-26.30 and 26.90-27.50 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 24.90-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50; targeting 24.60-24.10-23.40 and 22.05-21.60-21.00.

Oil - WTI

Crude Ol on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$81.96/bbl, an intraday low of US$80.36/bbl, and settled up by 0.543% to close at US81.92/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 68.50, a support level, and breakage below will call for 68.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 81.90-85.60 with stop loss at 85.60; targeting 81.20-80.50-79.70 and 78.00-77.10-76.00. Buy above 80.50-76.30 with risk daily closing below 76.30; targeting 81.20-81.90-82.50 and 83.10-84.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.0979/EUR, a high of US$1.1019/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.0528% to close at US$1.0988/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1020-1.1390, targeting 1.0990-1.0900-1.0840 and 1.0790-1.0750-1.0660 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1390. Buy above 1.0950-1.0705 with risk below 1.0725 targeting 1.1060-1.1150 and 1.1210-1.1250-1.1290.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2740/GBP, a high of US$1.2840/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.454% to close at US$1.2775/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2112) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2750-1.2400 with a target of 1.2800-1.2855-1.2900 and 1.2990-1.3050-1.3140 with a stop loss closing below 1.2400. Sell in between 1.2800-1.3200 with targets at 1.2750-1.2650-1.2590 and 1.2520-1.2450 with a stop loss should be 1.3140.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of JPY142.19/USD, an intraday high of JPY143.54/USD, and settled the day up by 0.967% at JPY143.32/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 142.20-146.00 with risk above 146.00 targeting 139.50-138.30-137.50 and 136.90-136.40-135.50. Long positions above 141.00-134.90 with targets of 142.20-143.00-144.20 and 145.00-146.00with stops below 134.00