Daily Markets

• Oil prices edged lower on Monday, but were hovering near three-month highs and were set to post their biggest monthly gains in more than a year on expectations that Saudi Arabia would extend voluntary output cuts into September and tighten global supply Brent and WTI settled on Friday at their highest levels since April, gaining for a fifth straight week, as tightening oil supplies globally and expectations of an end to U.S. interest rate hikes supported prices. Both are on track to close July with their biggest monthly gains since January 2022. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is expected to extend a voluntary oil output cut of 1 mn bpd for another month to include September, analysts said. Saudi Arabia is expected to announce this at the Friday meeting of OPEC+, a group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia that pumps around 40% of the world's crude. The bank maintained its Brent forecast at $86 a barrel for December and expects prices to rise to $93 in the second quarter of 2024. Goldman Sachs estimated that global oil demand rose to a record 102.8 million bpd in July and it revised up 2023 demand by about 550,000 bpd on stronger economic growth estimates in India and the U.S., offsetting a downgrade for China's consumption. Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods said the company expects record oil demand this year and next year, and that this may help boost energy prices in the second half of the year. In the U.S., energy firms in July cut the number of oil rigs for an eighth straight month by one to 529, Baker Hughes said in its weekly report on Friday.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1963.39/oz and low of $1945.37/oz. Gold is up by 0.699% at US$1959.29/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1894) and breakage below will call for 1871. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are also decreasing trend, which will bring more downward stances in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory, giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1960-2009 keeping stop loss closing above 2009, targeting 1954-1944-1934 and 1900-1894-1885. Buy in between 1950-1,871 with risk below 1874 targeting 1960-1976-1985 and 2000-2009.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$24.39/oz and low of US$24.09/oz settled up by 0.907% at US$24.34/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (22.91), breakage above will lead to 23.51. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend, bringing a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.20-18.30, targeting 25.00-25.90-26.30 and 26.90-27.50 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 24.90-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50; targeting 24.60-24.10-23.40 and 22.05-21.60-21.00.

Oil - WTI

Crude Ol on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$80.52/bbl, an intraday low of US$78.90/bbl, and settled up by 1.19% to close at US80.49/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 68.50, a support level, and breakage below will call for 68.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 80.60-82.60 with stop loss at 82.60; targeting 78.00-77.10-76.00 and 75.20-74.00-73.30. Buy above 79.60-73.30 with risk daily closing below 73.30; targeting 79.60-80.50 and 81.20-81.90-82.50.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0943/EUR, a high of US$1.1046/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.395% to close at US$1.1017/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1060-1.1390, targeting 1.0990-1.0900-1.0840 and 1.0790-1.0750-1.0660 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1390. Buy above 1.020-1.0705 with risk below 1.0725 targeting 1.1060-1.1150 and 1.1210-1.1250-1.1290.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2762/GBP, a high of US$1.2886/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.431% to close at US$1.2850/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2112) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2855-1.2400 with a target of 1.2900-1.2990-1.3050 and 1.3140-1.3200-1.3260 with a stop loss closing below 1.2400. Sell in between 1.2900-1.3140 with targets at 1.2855-1.2800 and 1.2750-1.2650-1.2590 with a stop loss should be 1.3140.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday made an intra‐day low of JPY138.05/USD, an intraday high of JPY141.18/USD, and settled the day up by 1.276% at JPY141.16/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 142.20-146.00 with risk above 146.00 targeting 139.50-138.30-137.50 and 136.90-136.40-135.50. Long positions above 141.00-134.90 with targets of 142.20-143.00-144.20 and 145.00-146.00with stops below 134.00