Daily Markets

• Global benchmark Brent crude hovered above $81 a barrel on Friday, with bullish sentiment over U.S. demand bolstered by supply disruption in Libya and Nigeria. Both the Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contracts had risen for three straight sessions and in early Asian trade on Friday, poised to register a third straight week of gains for the first time since April. On Thursday some oilfields in Libya were shut down because of a local tribe's protest against the kidnapping of a former minister. Separately, Shell (LON:RDSa) suspended loadings of Nigeria's Forcados crude oil owing to a potential leak at a terminal. The Libya disruption is halting an estimated 370,000 barrels per day (bpd) while the loss from the Nigerian outage is pegged at 225,000 bpd, said PVM analyst Tamas Varga. With the "market in thrall of a ‘tightening’ narrative", any more outages will push the oil price to levels that not even the most ardent bull would have predicted for the second half of the year, Varga added. Further price support came from Thursday's reports by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), predicting that oil demand will pick up in the second half of the year, particularly in China, despite broader macroeconomic headwinds. National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY) said in a research note on Friday that it expected the OPEC forecast, if realised, "to deliver oil prices well above $100 a barrel", adding that the softening value of the U.S. dollar continued to boost commodity prices.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1963.41/oz and low of $1952.66/oz. Gold is up by 0.163% at US$1960.27/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1894) and breakage below will call for 1871. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are also decreasing trend, which will bring more downward stances in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1966-2009 keeping stop loss closing above 2009, targeting 1954-1944-1934 and 1900-1894-1885. Buy in between 1954-1,871 with risk below 1874 targeting 1966-1974-1985 and 2000-2009.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$24.86/oz and low of US$24.07/oz settled up by 3.24% at US$24.86/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (22.91), breakage above will lead to 23.51. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 22.90-18.30, targeting 22.90-23.40-24.10 and 24.60-25.00-25.90-26.30 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 23.40-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50; targeting 22.05-21.60-21.00 and 20.80.

Oil - WTI

Crude Ol on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$77.15/bbl, an intraday low of US$75.22/bbl, and settled up by 1.9431% to close at US77.04/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 68.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 75.90-79.60 with stop loss at 79.60; targeting 74.00-73.30-72.55 and 71.60-70.10-69.00. Buy above 75.20-69.50 with risk daily closing below 69.00; targeting 76.00-77.20 and 78.00-78.90-79.60.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1139/EUR, a high of US$1.1139/EUR, and settled the day up by 1.10% to close at US$1.1129/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1250-1.1390, targeting 1.1020-1.0900-1.0840 and 1.0790-1.0750-1.0660 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1390. Buy above 1.1200-1.0705 with risk below 1.0725 targeting 1 and 1.1090-1.1150-1.1210.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2977/GBP, a high of US$1.3140/GBP, and settled the day up by 1.14% to close at US$1.3134/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2112) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3050-1.2400 with a target of 1.3140-1.3200-1.3260 and 1.3320-1.3410 with a stop loss closing below 1.2400. Sell in between 1.2970-1.3140 with targets at 1.2910-1.2855-1.2800 and 1.2750-1.2650-1.2590 with a stop loss should be 1.3140.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday made an intra‐day low of JPY137.91/USD, an intraday high of JPY138.95/USD, and settled the day down by 0.317% at JPY138.02/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 139.30-143.00 with risk above 143.00 targeting 138.30-137.50-136.90 and 136.40-135.50-134.90. Long positions above 138.30-134.90 with targets of 139.30-140.10-140.50 and 141.00-142.20-144.00 with stops below 134.00