Daily Markets

• Global oil benchmark Brent hovered above $80 a barrel on Thursday, fuelled by U.S. inflation data that presaged the interest rate hike cycle in the world's biggest economy is set to finally cool. Data released on Wednesday showed U.S. consumer prices rose modestly in June and registered their smallest annual increase in more than two years as inflation continued to subside. Markets expect one more interest rate rise before the U.S. rate-hiking cycle has likely peaked. Higher rates can slow economic growth and reduce oil demand. Oil prices have rallied around 12% in two weeks, primarily in response to supply cuts from top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia, noted Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA. Meanwhile, a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Thursday predicted oil demand would hit a record high this year, but that broader economic headwinds and interest rate hikes would temper the increase to be slightly less than anticipated. In China, for instance, momentum in post-pandemic recovery slowed with exports contracting last month at their fastest pace since the onset of the pandemic three years ago, the country's Customs Bureau showed on Thursday. However, there were silver linings in the number of crude imports in June, jumping 45.3% on the year and hitting its second-highest monthly figure on record, the report showed. Another factor capping price gains was a U.S. Energy Information Administration report of a much bigger-than-expected U.S. crude stock build of nearly 6 million barrels last week. Gasoline inventories remained largely unchanged at 219.5 million barrels during the Fourth of July holiday week, a situation that is "almost unheard of," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group. Analysts had expected a big drawdown of gasoline stocks as drivers took to the roads for holiday travel.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1959.60/oz and low of $1932.00/oz. Gold is up by 1.30% at US$1957.22/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1894) and breakage below will call for 1871. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are also decreasing trend, which will bring more downward stances in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1966-2009 keeping stop loss closing above 2009, targeting 1954-1944-1934 and 1900-1894-1885. Buy in between 1954-1,871 with risk below 1874 targeting 1966-1974-1985 and 2000-2009.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$24.13/oz and low of US$23.09/oz settled up by 4.327% at US$24.10/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (22.91), breakage above will lead to 23.51. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 22.90-18.30, targeting 22.90-23.40-24.10 and 24.60-25.00-25.90-26.30 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 23.40-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50; targeting 22.05-21.60-21.00 and 20.80.

Oil - WTI

Crude Ol on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$75.94/bbl, an intraday low of US$74.53/bbl, and settled up by 1.397% to close at US75.66/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 68.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 75.90-79.60 with stop loss at 79.60; targeting 74.00-73.30-72.55 and 71.60-70.10-69.00. Buy above 75.20-69.50 with risk daily closing below 69.00; targeting 76.00-77.20 and 78.00-78.90-79.60.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1139/EUR, a high of US$1.1139/EUR, and settled the day up by 1.10% to close at US$1.1129/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1090-1.1390, targeting 1.1020-1.0900-1.0840 and 1.0790-1.0750-1.0660 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1390. Buy above 1.1020-1.0705 with risk below 1.0725 targeting 1 and 1.1090-1.1150-1.1210.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2903/GBP, a high of US$1.2999/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.423% to close at US$1.2986/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2112) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2910-1.2400 with a target of 1.2970-1.3050 with a stop loss closing below 1.2400. Sell in between 1.2970-1.3140 with targets at 1.2910-1.2855-1.2800 and 1.2750-1.2650-1.2590 with a stop loss should be 1.3140.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of JPY138.14/USD, an intraday high of JPY140.36/USD, and settled the day down by 1.342% at JPY138.46/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 144.00-148.00 with risk above 148.00 targeting 143.50 and 142.20-141.00-139.70. Long positions above 143.50-140.00 with targets of 144.00-145.40-146.00-146.90 and 147.50-148.00 with stops below 136.00