Daily Markets

• Oil crept higher on Wednesday in a market caught between expectations supply cuts by the world's biggest fuel exporters will drive prices higher and concerns global economic weakness will sap demand. U.S. inflation data later on Wednesday will provide clues on the interest rate outlook in the world's biggest economy. Markets expect one more rise, but that the U.S. rate-hiking cycle is peaking. Higher rates can slow economic growth and reduce oil demand. U.S. crude inventories rose about 3 million barrels in the week to July 7, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute industry figures. Analysts polled by Reuters expected a 500,000-barrel rise in crude stocks. Nevertheless, forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) point to the market tightening into 2024. Meanwhile, The IEA expects the oil market should stay tight in the second half of 2023, citing strong demand from China and developing countries combined with supply cuts from leading producers. New forecasts from the IEA are expected this week. Top producer Saudi Arabia pledged last week to extend a production cut of 1 million bpd in August, while Russia will cut exports by 500,000 bpd.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1938.39/oz and low of $1924.30/oz. Gold is up by 0.361% at US$1931.99/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1894) and breakage below will call for 1871. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are also decreasing trend and which will bring more downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1930-1966 keeping stop loss closing above 1966, targeting 1900-1894-1885 and 1871-1858. Buy in between 1909-1,871 with risk below 1874 targeting 1909-1920-1934 and 1944-1954-1966.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$23.37/oz and low of US$23.00/oz settled down by 0.0173% at US$23.10/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (22.91), breakage above will lead to 23.51. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 22.90-18.30, targeting 22.90-23.40-24.10 and 24.60-25.00-25.90-26.30 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 23.40-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50; targeting 22.05-21.60-21.00 and 20.80.

Oil - WTI

Crude Ol on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$74.82/bbl, an intraday low of US$72.93/bbl, and settled up by 2.18% to close at US74.67/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 68.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 75.20-79.60 with stop loss at 79.60; targeting 74.00-73.30-72.55 and 71.60-70.10-69.00. Buy above 74.00-69.50 with risk daily closing below 69.00; targeting 75.20-76.00-77.20 and 78.00-78.90-79.60.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.0976/EUR, a high of US$1.1026/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.066% to close at US$1.1007/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1090-1.1390, targeting 1.1020-1.0900-1.0840 and 1.0790-1.0750-1.0660 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1390. Buy above 1.1020-1.0705 with risk below 1.0725 targeting 1 and 1.1090-1.1150-1.1210.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2853/GBP, a high of US$1.2934/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.55% to close at US$1.2931/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2112) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2910-1.2400 with a target of 1.2970-1.3050 with a stop loss closing below 1.2400. Sell in between 1.2970-1.3140 with targets at 1.2910-1.2855-1.2800 and 1.2750-1.2650-1.2590 with a stop loss should be 1.3140.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of JPY140.15/USD, an intraday high of JPY141.45/USD, and settled the day down by 0.570% at JPY140.35/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 144.00-148.00 with risk above 148.00 targeting 143.50 and 142.20-141.00-139.70. Long positions above 143.50-140.00 with targets of 144.00-145.40-146.00-146.90 and 147.50-148.00 with stops below 136.00