Daily Markets

• Oil prices dipped in Asian trade on Monday as investors tread cautiously ahead of fresh economic data from top consumers the United States and China this week, though expected crude supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia limited losses. However, crude prices could rebound after OPEC+ announced plans to further reduce supply, she added. China's factory-gate prices fell at the fastest pace in over seven years in June, government data showed on Monday, as the momentum of economic recovery in the world's second-largest economy has slowed. The oil benchmarks gained more than 4% last week to touch their highest marks since May, rising for a second straight week after the world's biggest oil exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia pledged to deepen supply cuts in August. Saudi Arabia will extend its 1 million barrels per day (bpd) output cut into August and Russia will cut crude exports by 500,000 bpd. Instead of cutting output, Russia will be using the crude to produce more fuel to meet domestic demand, a government source told Reuters on Friday. Saudi Arabia's cuts are easing its oil glut as floating storage off the Egyptian Red Sea port of Ain Sukhna is down by almost half to 10.5 million barrels from mid-June, according to data from oil analytics firm Vortexa as of July 7. Non-OPEC+ supply has been keeping up with global demand, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) analysts said in a note, adding that OPEC+ needs to deepen its cuts by another 700,000 bpd in the second half of the year on top of announced reductions and extend them into 2024. In the U.S., Friday's data showed still-strong wage growth and a slight drop in the unemployment rate this week will likely keep the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates at the upcoming July meeting. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to July 3, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday. A sustained break for WTI prices above $75 would likely see the benchmark testing the top of its eight-month $64 to $84 range, IG analyst Tony Sycamore said. U.S. oil rigs fell by five to 540 last week, the lowest since April 2022, according to a Baker Hughes report on Friday.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1927.95/oz and low of $1919.25/oz. Gold is up by 0.776% at US$1924.54/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1894) and breakage below will call for 1871. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are also decreasing trend and which will bring more downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1930-1966 keeping stop loss closing above 1966, targeting 1900-1894-1885 and 1871-1858. Buy in between 1909-1,871 with risk below 1874 targeting 1909-1920-1934 and 1944-1954-1966.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$23.13/oz and low of US$23.09/oz settled up by 1.861% at US$23.09/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (22.91), breakage above will lead to 23.51. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 22.90-18.30, targeting 22.90-23.40-24.10 and 24.60-25.00-25.90-26.30 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 23.40-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50; targeting 22.05-21.60-21.00 and 20.80.

Oil - WTI

Crude Ol on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$73.83/bbl, an intraday low of US$71.18/bbl, and settled up by 2.51% to close at US73.59/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 68.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 72.55-75.20 with stop loss at 75.00; targeting 70.10-69.00-68.40 and 67.50-66.90-66.00. Buy above 71.60-66.50 with risk daily closing below 66.00; targeting 72.50-73.50-74.10 and 74.60-75.20.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0866/EUR, a high of US$1.0972/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.756% to close at US$1.0969/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0990-1.1390, targeting 1.0840-1.0790-1.0750 and 1.0660-1.0600-1.0550 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1390. Buy above 1.0900-1.0525 with risk below 1.0525 targeting 1.0970-1.1020 and 1.1090-1.1150-1.1210.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2672/GBP, a high of US$1.2780/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.812% to close at US$1.2738/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2112) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2800-1.2400 with a target of 1.2855-1.2910 and 1.2970-1.3050 with a stop loss closing below 1.2400. Sell in between 1.2855-1.3140 with targets at 1.2800-1.2750-1.2650 and 1.2590-1.2520-1.2450 with a stop loss should be 1.3140.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday made an intra‐day low of JPY143.55/USD, an intraday high of JPY144.64/USD, and settled the day down by 0.407% at JPY144.04/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 144.00-148.00 with risk above 148.00 targeting 143.50 and 142.20-141.00-139.70. Long positions above 143.50-140.00 with targets of 144.00-145.40-146.00-146.90 and 147.50-148.00 with stops below 136.00