Daily Markets

• Gold prices steadied further above key support levels on Tuesday, but the yellow metal still remained under pressure as markets awaited more cues on monetary policy from the Federal Reserve this week. Bullion prices saw some relief over the past two sessions, after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge read lower than expected for May. But the central bank is still expected to hike rates in July. Substantially weaker-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data also ramped up fears of slowing growth, spurring some flows into gold. Markets remained largely wary of gold ahead of more cues on the Fed this week, starting with the minutes of the central bank’s June meeting, due on Wednesday. While the bank had kept rates steady, it had also flagged at least two more hikes this year. Rising interest rates bode poorly for gold, given that they increase the opportunity cost of holding the yellow metal. Nonfarm payrolls data for June is also due on Friday, and is expected to factor into the Fed’s rate decision later in the month. Markets are pricing in an 88% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points in July, given that inflation is still trending well above the central bank’s target range. The prospect of high rates weighed heavily on gold over the past two months, and is expected to limit any major recovery in the yellow metal this year. Other precious metals were also muted this week. Platinum rose 0.2%, while silver futures were flat. Among industrial metals, copper prices marked a strong start to the week despite soft manufacturing activity data from the U.S. and China. U.S. activity shrank more than expected in June, while growth in China’s manufacturing sector declined through the month, separate surveys showed on Monday.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$19/oz and low of $1900.41/oz. Gold is up by 0.606% at US$1919.60/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1894) and breakage below will call for 1871. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are also decreasing trend and which will bring more downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region and more downside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1920-1966 keeping stop loss closing above 1966, targeting 1900-1894-1885 and 1871-1858. Buy in between 1901-1,871 with risk below 1874 targeting 1909-1920-1934 and 1944-1954-1966.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$23.05/oz and low of US$22.69/oz settled up by 0.593% at US$22.89/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (22.91), breakage above will lead to 23.51. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 22.05-18.30, targeting 22.90-23.40-24.10 and 24.60-25.00-25.90-26.30 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 22.90-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50; targeting 22.05-21.60-21.00 and 20.80.

Oil - WTI

Crude Ol on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$71.81/bbl, an intraday low of US$69.75/bbl, and settled down by 0.419% to close at US70.18/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 68.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 70.90-74.70 with stop loss at 75.00; targeting 70.10-69.00-68.40 and 67.50-66.90-66.00. Buy above 70.10-66.50 with risk daily closing below 66.00; targeting 70.90-71.60 and 72.50-73.50-74.10.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.0869/EUR, a high of US$1.0933/EUR, and settled the day up by % to close at US$1.0909/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0900-1.1390, targeting 1.0840-1.0790-1.0750 and 1.0660-1.0600-1.0550 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1390. Buy above 1.0840-1.0525 with risk below 1.0525 targeting 1.0900-1.0970-1.1020 and 1.1090-1.1150-1.1210.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2657/GBP, a high of US$1.2722/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.065% to close at US$1.2691/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2112) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2650-1.2400 with a target of 1.2690-1.2750-1.2855 and 1.2910-1.2970-1.3050 with a stop loss closing below 1.2400. Sell in between 1.2690-1.2950 with targets at 1.2650-1.2590 and 1.2520-1.2450 with stop loss should be 1.2970.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made an intra‐day low of JPY143.97/USD, an intraday high of JPY144.90/USD, and settled the day up by 0.259% at JPY144.65/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (137.57), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 145.40-148.00 with risk above 148.00 targeting 144.60-144.00-143.50 and 142.20-141.00-139.70. Long positions above 144.60-140.00 with targets of 145.40-146.00-146.90 and 147.50-148.00 with stops below 136.00