Daily Markets

• Global oil prices fell more than 1% on Monday, backing off last week's gains, as questions over China's economy outweighed OPEC+ output cuts and the seventh straight drop in the number of oil and gas rigs operating in the United States. A number of major banks have cut their 2023 gross domestic product growth forecasts for China after May data last week showed the post-COVID recovery in the world's second-largest economy was faltering. China is widely expected to cut its benchmark loan prime interest rates on Tuesday, following a similar reduction in medium-term policy loans last week to shore up a shaky economic recovery. Sources have told Reuters that China will roll out more stimulus support for its slowing economy this year, but concerns over debt and capital flight will keep the measures targeted at shoring up weak demand in the consumer and private sectors. Still, China's refinery throughput rose in May to its second-highest total on record, helping to boost last week's gains, and U.S. energy firms cut the number of working oil and natural gas rigs for a seventh week in a row for the first time since July 2020. The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by 8 to 687 in the week to June 16, the lowest since April 2022. Oil prices on Monday are also lower on expectations that the OPEC and its allies including Russia, or OPEC+, will struggle to get compliance with production quotas, said Edward Moya, senior analyst at OANDA. Speaking at an economic forum on Saturday, Sechin said it would be appropriate for OPEC+ to monitor oil export volumes as well as production quotas due to the different sizes of each country's domestic markets. Earlier this month, OPEC+ had agreed on a new oil output deal. The group's biggest producer Saudi Arabia also pledged to make a deep cut to its output in July.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1967.80/oz and low of $1953.14/oz. Gold is down by 0.003% at US$1957.58/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1,966-2000 keeping stop loss closing above 2000, targeting 1955-1944-1936 and 1926-1920-1910. Buy in between 1,944-1,900 with risk below 1,900 targeting 1966-1974 and 1981-1990-2000.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$24.19/oz and low of US$23.82/oz settled up by 0.488% at US$24.18/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (21.00), breakage above will lead to 21.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 23.40-18.30, targeting 24.10-24.60 and 25.00-25.90-26.30 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 24.10-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50; targeting 23.60-23.00 and 22.05-21.60-21.00.

Oil - WTI

Crude Ol on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$72.01/bbl, an intraday low of US$70.10/bbl, and settled up by 1.271% to close at US71.62/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 68.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 71.50-74.70 with stop loss at 75.00; targeting 70.10-69.00-68.40 and 67.50-66.80-65.60. Buy above 70.90-64.10 with risk daily closing below 64.00; targeting 71.40-72.30 and 73.50-74.10-75.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0916/EUR, a high of US$1.0970/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.005% to close at US$1.0916/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0990-1.1390, targeting 1.0600-1.0550 and 1.0510-1.0470 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1390. Buy above 1.0900-1.0525 with risk below 1.0525 targeting 1.0970-1.1020-1.1090 and 1.1150-1.1210-1.1390.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2767/GBP, a high of US$1.2847/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.338% to close at US$1.2825/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2112) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2800-1.2200 with a target of 1.2855-1.2910 and 1.2970-1.3050 with a stop loss closing below 1.2200. Sell in between 1.2855-1.3050 with targets at 1.2750-1.2690-1.2650 and 1.2520-1.2450 with stop loss should be 1.2954.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday made an intra‐day low of JPY139.84/USD, an intraday high of JPY141.89/USD, and settled the day up by 1.150% at JPY141.85/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (134.05), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 141.90-145.00 with risk above 145.00 targeting 141.00-139.70-138.90 and 137.90-137.00-136.20. Long positions above 141.00-136.00 with targets of 141.60-142.00-143.50 and 144.00-144.60-145.40 with stops below 136.00