Daily Markets

• Gold and broader metal markets steadied on Friday and were set for a second week of gains, as the dollar retreated amid bets that the Federal Reserve will pause its rate hike cycle next week. The yellow metal marked its best intraday gain in two weeks on Thursday, coming to the upper end of a trading range seen since mid-May as a jump in weekly U.S. jobless claims ramped up bets on a Fed pause. The dollar marked its sharpest drop since late March following the data, while Treasury yields also eased, which in turn benefited metal markets priced in the greenback. Weakness in the labor market, coupled with some easing in inflation could see the Fed pause its rate hike cycle when it meets next week. But recent personal consumption and nonfarm payroll indicators beat expectations, keeping uncertainty high over how the central bank will act. Fed Fund futures prices show that markets are pricing in a nearly 76% chance the Fed will pause in June, with a 24% chance for a 25 basis hike. Consumer inflation data is also on tap next week, offering more cues on future interest rate decisions by the Fed. While the yellow metal is expected to see some support if the Fed pauses next week, its gains are expected to be limited with U.S. interest rates likely staying higher for longer this year. Uncertainty over the Fed and the economy has also kept gold within a tight trading range since mid-May after the yellow metal tumbled below the closely watched $2,000 an ounce level. Still, worsening economic conditions this year could see increased safe-haven demand for gold, especially as a pause in the Fed’s rate hike cycle saps support for the dollar.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1970.38/oz and low of $1939.53/oz. Gold is up by 1.317% at US$1965.41/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1,966-2080 keeping stop loss closing above 2009, targeting 1955-1944-1936 and 1926-1920-1910. Buy in between 1,955-1,900 with risk below 1,900 targeting 1966-1974 and 1981-1990-2000.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$24.34/oz and low of US$23.40/oz settled up by 3.561% at US$24.25/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (21.00), breakage above will lead to 21.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.10-18.30, targeting 24.10-24.60 and 25.00-25.90-26.30 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 24.60-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50; targeting 25.00-24.60-23.60-23.00 and 22.05-21.60-21.00.

Oil - WTI

Crude Ol on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$73.24/bbl, an intraday low of US$72.50/bbl, and settled up by 1.20% to close at US71.02/bbl

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 68.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 73.30-77.00 with stop loss at 77.00; targeting 72.30-71.40*-70.10 and 69.00-68.40-67.50. Buy above 72.30-67.40 with risk daily closing below 67.40; targeting 72.30-73.50-74.10 and 75.00-76.20-77.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.0692/EUR, a high of US$1.0786/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.784% to close at US$1.0781/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0790-1.1390, targeting 1.0600-1.0550 and 1.0510-1.0470 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1032. Buy above 1.0750-1.0525 with risk below 1.0525 targeting 1.0790-1.0840 and 1.1090-1.1150-1.1200

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2429/GBP, a high of US$1.2560/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.982% to close at US$1.2558/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2112) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2450-1.2200 with a target of 1.2520-1.2590 and 1.2640-1.2700-1.2745 with a stop loss closing below 1.2200. Sell in between 1.2520-1.2954 with targets at 1.2450-1.2390-1.2320 and 1.2290-1.2250-1.2205 with stop loss should be 1.2954.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday made an intra‐day low of JPY138.80/USD, an intraday high of JPY140.20/USD, and settled the day down by 0.840% at JPY138.89/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (134.05), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 139.70-142.00 with risk above 142.00 targeting 139.70-138.90-138.50 and 137.90-137.00-136.20. Long positions above 139.00-136.00 with targets of 139.60-140.50-141.00 and 141.60-142.00-143.50 with stops below 133.00.