Daily Markets

• Oil prices fell on Monday as concerns about fuel demand in the top global oil consumers, the United States and China, offset bullish sentiment about tightening supplies from OPEC+ cuts and a resumption in U.S. buying for reserves. Last week, both benchmarks fell for a fourth consecutive week, the longest streak of weekly declines since September 2022, over concerns the United States could enter a recession on "significant risk" of a historic default within the first two weeks of June. Investors sought safe havens such as the U.S. dollar, strengthening the currency and making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. Investors will scour China's slew of economic data on industrial output, fixed assets investment and retail sales in the week ahead for signs of oil demand improvement, she said. Still, global crude supplies could tighten in the second half as the OPEC+ grouping, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, is making additional output cuts that are reducing sour crude availability. The group announced in April that some members would cut output further by around 1.16 million barrels per day, bringing the total volume of cuts to 3.66 million bpd, according to Reuters calculations. However, Iraq does not expect OPEC+ to make further cuts to oil output at its next meeting in June, said its oil minister, Hayan Abdel-Ghani. The U.S. could start repurchasing oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) after completing a congressionally mandated sale in June, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told lawmakers on Thursday. This announcement was followed by a weekly report by energy services firm Baker Hughes Co that showed the number of U.S. oil rigs fell by two to 586 this week, their lowest since June 2022, while the number of gas rigs plunged by 16 to 141. Meanwhile, leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) nations could announce new measures at their May 19-21 meetings that target sanctions evasion involving third countries, said officials with direct knowledge of the discussions. The tightening of sanctions will also seek to undermine Russia's future energy production and curb trade that supports the Russian military, the people said. India and China, the world's No. 3 and No. 1 crude importers, respectively, have been the key buyers of Russian crude since the European Union embargo star.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday made it’s intraday high of US$2022.44/oz and low of $2000.78/oz. Gold is down by 0.199% at US$2010.76/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2020-2080 keeping stop loss closing above 2080, targeting 2039-2020-2009 and 1990-1981-1969. Buy in between 2,000-1,966 with risk below 1,966 targeting 2020-2039-2,050-and 2,058-2,069-2,080.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$24.19/oz and low of US$23.72/oz settled down by 0.827% at US$23.96/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (21.00), breakage above will lead to 21.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.00-18.30, targeting 25.00-25.90-26.30 and 26.90-27.50 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 25.00-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50; targeting 25.00-24.60-23.60-23.00 and 22.05-21.60-21.00.

Oil - WTI

Crude Ol on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$71.72/bbl, an intraday low of US$69.91/bbl, and settled down by 1.929% to close at US$70.05/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 68.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 70.80-75.90 with stop loss at 75.90; targeting 70.10-69.00-68.40 and 67.00-65.90. Buy above 70.10-64.30 with risk daily closing below 64.30; targeting 70.90-71.50-72.40 and 73.50-74.10-75.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0934/EUR, a high of US$1.10934/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.602% to close at US$1.0848/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1090-1.1390, targeting 1.1050-1.0990-1.0960 and 1.0900- 1.0810-1.0750 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1032. Buy above 1.0950-1.0525 with risk below 1.0525 targeting 1.1090-1.1150 and 1.1200-1.1250.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2444/GBP, a high of US$1.2679/GBP, and settled the day up 0.038% to close at US$1.2447/GBP

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2112) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2445-1.2200 with a target of 1.2590-1.2640-1.2700 and 1.2745-1.2800-1.2890 with a stop loss closing below 1.2200. Sell in between 1.2520-1.2954 with targets at 1.2550-1.2490 and 1.2640-1.2590-1.2545 with stop loss should be 1.2954.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday made an intra‐day low of JPY134.33/USD and made an intraday high of JPY135.75/USD and settled the day up by 0.976% at JPY135.73/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (134.05), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 135.50-140.60 with risk above 140.60 targeting 137.00-136.20-134.90 and 134.00-132.90-132.20. Long positions above 134.90-130.00 with targets of 134.90-136.00-137.00 and 137.90-138.50-139.00 with stops below 130.00.