Daily Markets

• Oil rose on Wednesday after plunging more than 2% in the previous session as reports of falling U.S. crude oil and fuel inventories refocused investors on robust demand in the world's top oil consumer. U.S. crude oil stocks fell by about 6.1 million barrels in the week ended April 21, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute (API) figures on Tuesday. Analysts had expected crude inventories to fall by about 1.5 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell 1.9 million barrels last week, while distillate inventories rose by 1.7 million barrels, the sources said the API reported. Official stockpiles data from the U.S. government is due on Wednesday. U.S. crude oil stockpiles have been falling since the middle of March as refineries have increased their runs to produce more gasoline ahead of the peak summer demand period that starts in May. This has pushed WTI futures prices into a backwardation, when prompt futures are higher than later-dated futures, reflecting the higher refinery demand. Oil prices dived more than 2% on Tuesday, returning to near the same level before the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producer allies such as Russia, known as OPEC+, announced an additional output reduction in early April. The upward momentum brought by the OPEC cut is running out and Russian oil exports did not show any obvious decrease, leaving the supply side with no further supports, said Song Yang, an analyst from China Galaxy Futures in a note. While the API data pushed the market higher on Wednesday, lingering economic concerns and expectations of further interest rate hikes that could curtail fuel demand growth are countering the signs of improving short-term consumption gains. U.S. consumer confidence dropped to a nine-month low in April as worries about the future mounted, further heightening the risk that the economy could fall into recession this year. Investors also showed concern that potential new interest rate hikes by inflation-fighting central banks could slow economic growth and dent energy demand in the United States, Britain, and the European Union. The U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank are all expected to raise rates at their coming meetings. The Fed meets May 2-3.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Tuesday made it’s intraday high of US$2003.72/oz and low of $1976.05/oz. Gold is up by 0.402% at US$1996.88/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2000-2080 keeping stop loss closing above 2080, targeting 2009-1994 and 1981-1969-1950. Buy in between 1994-1959 with risk below 1959, targeting 2009-2,020-2,034 and 2,050-2,058-2,069-2,080.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$25.35/oz and low of US$24.48/oz settled down by 0.616% at US$25.00/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (21.00), breakage above will lead to 21.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 25.00-18.30, targeting 25.00-25.90-26.30 and 26.90-27.50 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 25.90-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50; targeting 25.00-24.60-23.60-23.00 and 22.05-21.60-21.00.

Oil - WTI

Crude Ol on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$78.99/bbl, an intraday low of US$76.44/bbl, and settled down by 2.01% to close at US$77.02/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 68.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 78.00-87.60 with stop loss at 87.60; targeting 77.30-76.70 and 76.05-75.00. Buy above 77.50-84.40 with risk daily closing below 84.40; targeting 81.70-83.30-84.40-85.50 and 86.45-87.00-87.60.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.0963/EUR, a high of US$1.066/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.664% to close at US$1.0971/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0990-1.1250, targeting 1.0990-1.0960-1.0900 and 1.0810-1.0750-1.0700 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1032. Buy above 1.0950-1.0525 with risk below 1.0525 targeting 1.1030-1.1090-1.1150 and 1.1200-1.1250.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2385/GBP, a high of US$1.2506/GBP, and settled the day up 0.542% to close at US$1.2406/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2112) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2445-1.2200 with a target of 1.2490-1.2545 and 1.2600-1.2640-1.2745 with a stop loss closing below 1.2200. Sell in between 1.2545-1.2745 with targets at 1.2450-1.2400-1.2340 and 1.2240-1.2200-1.2170 with stop loss should be 1.2745.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of JPY133.36/USD and made an intraday high of JPY134.47/USD and settled the day down by 0.369% at JPY133.71/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (134.05), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 134.00-140.60 with risk above 140.60 targeting 134.00-132.90-132.20 and 131.40-130.60-130.00. Long positions above 132.90-130.00 with targets of 134.00-134.90-135.50 and 136.00-137.00-137.90 with stops below 130.00.