Daily Markets

• Oil prices firmed slightly on Tuesday, after falling 2% in the previous session, as stronger economic data from the world's largest crude importer China underpinned the demand outlook. China's economy grew at a faster-than-expected clip in the first quarter, official data showed, and expanding 4.5% year-on-year as policymakers move to bolster growth following the end of strict COVID-19 curbs in December. Furthermore, May is the seasonal peak travel period in China and demand for fuel is expected to post a very large year-on-year increase, he said. Chinese refinery throughput surged to record levels in March, signaling robust demand for fuel, as refiners stepped up runs to capture strong export demand and build up inventories ahead of planned maintenance. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast that China will account for most of 2023 crude oil demand growth. However, the agency also has warned that output cuts announced by OPEC+ producers risk exacerbating a supply deficit expected in the second half of the year and could hurt consumers and set back global economic recovery. Oil prices also remain under pressure due to a stronger dollar and a rise in treasury yields, National Australia bank analysts said in a client note. The U.S. dollar has been strengthening alongside interest rate hikes, and traders are betting the U.S. Federal Reserve will again raise its lending rate in May, which could dampen economic recovery hopes. A stronger dollar makes commodities priced in the greenback more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. U.S. crude oil and natural gas production in the country's seven biggest shale basins is expected to rise in May to a record, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Monday, signalling some supply increment on this front. Data on U.S. crude stockpiles is due on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a preliminary Reuters poll showing on Monday that U.S. crude oil inventories likely fell by about 2.5 million barrels last week.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday made it’s intraday high of US$2014.94/oz and low of $1981.05/oz. Gold is down by 0.201% at US$1994.89/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2000-2080 keeping stop loss closing above 2080, targeting 2009-1994 and 1981-1969-1950. Buy in between 1994-1959 with risk below 1959, targeting 2009-2,020-2,034 and 2,050-2,058-2,069-2,080.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$25.59/oz and low of US$24.79/oz settled down by 0.997% at US$25.02/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (21.00), breakage above will lead to 21.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 25.00-18.30, targeting 25.00-25.90-26.30 and 26.90-27.50 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 25.90-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50; targeting 25.00-24.60-23.60-23.00 and 22.05-21.60-21.00.

Oil - WTI

Crude Ol on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$82.58/bbl, an intraday low of US$80.42/bbl, and settled down by 1.762% to close at US$80.93/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 68.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 81.70-87.60 with stop loss at 87.60; targeting 81.00-80.10-79.60 and 78.70-78.00. Buy above 81.00-78.70 with risk daily closing below 78.70; targeting 81.70-83.30-84.40-85.50 and 86.45-87.00-87.60.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.0908/EUR, a high of US$1.0999/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.606% to close at US$1.0921/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0990-1.1250, targeting 1.0990-1.0960-1.0900 and 1.0810-1.0750-1.0700 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1032. Buy above 1.0950-1.0525 with risk below 1.0525 targeting 1.1030-1.1090-1.1150 and 1.1200-1.1250.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2352/GBP, a high of US$1.2437/GBP, and settled the day down 0.264% to close at US$1.2375/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2112) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2400-1.2200 with a target of 1.2445-1.2490-1.2545 and 1.2600-1.2640-1.2745 with a stop loss closing below 1.2200. Sell in between 1.2545-1.2745 with targets at 1.2490-1.2400-1.2340 and 1.2240-1.2200-1.2170 with stop loss should be 1.2745.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made an intra‐day low of JPY132.16/USD and made an intraday high of JPY133.83/USD and settled the day up by 0.929% at JPY133.78/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (134.05), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 134.90-140.60 with risk above 140.60 targeting 134.00-132.90-132.20 and 131.40-130.60-130.00. Long positions above 132.20-128.00 with targets of 132.90 and 134.00-134.90-135.0 with stops below 130.00.