Daily Markets

• Oil prices were steady on Monday as investors eyed Chinese economic data for signs of demand recovery in the world's second-largest oil consumer. The release of China's first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data this week is expected to be positive for commodity prices, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting it will account for most of 2023 demand growth. The data are due to be published at 0200 GMT on Tuesday. However, the IEA warned in its monthly report that the output cuts announced by OPEC+ producers risked exacerbating an oil supply deficit expected in the second half of the year and could hurt consumers and a global economic recovery. Further tightening supplies, oil exports from northern Iraq to the Turkish port of Ceyhan remain at a standstill almost three weeks after an arbitration case ruled Ankara owed Baghdad compensation for unauthorised exports. Rising costs for Middle East crude supplies, which meet more than half of Asia's demand, are already squeezing refiners' margins, prompting them to secure supplies from other regions. Refiners are also ramping up gasoline output ahead of peak summer demand, while cutting diesel production amid worsening margins. Meanwhile earnings from U.S. companies could also provide clues for the Federal Reserve's policy path and the dollar's trajectory, she added. The greenback has been strengthening alongside interest rate hikes, making dollar-denominated oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. Traders are betting that the Fed will raise its lending rate in May by another quarter of a percentage point and pushed out to late this year expectations of a rate cut, as typically occurs in a slowdown.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday made it’s intraday high of US$2047.35/oz and low of $1992.25/oz. Gold is down by 1.756% at US$2004.17/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2020-2080 keeping stop loss closing above 2080, targeting 2009-1994 and 1981-1969-1950. Buy in between 2009-1959 with risk below 1959, targeting 2,020-2,034-2,050-2,058 and 2,069-2,080.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$26.07/oz and low of US$25.142/oz settled down by 1.79% at US$25.34/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (21.00), breakage above will lead to 21.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 25.40-18.30, targeting 25.00-25.90-26.30 and 26.90-27.50 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 25.90-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50; targeting 25.00-24.60-23.60-23.00 and 22.05-21.60-21.00.

Oil - WTI

Crude Ol on made an intra‐day high of US$82.97/bbl, an intraday low of US$81.62/bbl, and settled up by % to close at US$82.55/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 68.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 83.30-87.60 with stop loss at 87.60; targeting 82.40-81.70-81.00 and 80.10-79.60-78.70. Buy above 82.40-78.70 with risk daily closing below 78.70; targeting 83.30-84.40-85.50 and 86.45-87.00-87.60.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0971/EUR, a high of US$1.1075/EUR, and settled the day down by 1.002% to close at US$1.0993/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1030-1.1250, targeting 1.0990-1.0960-1.0900 and 1.0810-1.0750-1.0700 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1032. Buy above 1.0990-1.0525 with risk below 1.0525 targeting 1.1030-1.1090-1.1150 and 1.1200-1.1250.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2398/GBP, a high of US$1.2545/GBP, and settled the day down 0.842% to close at US$1.2414/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2112) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2400-1.2200 with a target of 1.2445-1.2490-1.2545 and 1.2600-1.2640-1.2745 with a stop loss closing below 1.2200. Sell in between 1.2545-1.2745 with targets at 1.2490-1.2400-1.2340 and 1.2240-1.2200-1.2170 with stop loss should be 1.2745.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday made an intra‐day low of JPY132.16/USD and made an intraday high of JPY133.83/USD and settled the day up by 0.929% at JPY133.78/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (134.05), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 132.90-140.60 with risk above 140.60 targeting 131.40-130.60-130.00-129.40 and 128.90-128.00. Long positions above 132.20-128.00 with targets of 132.90 and 134.00-134.90-135.0 with stops below 130.00.