Daily Markets

• Oil prices edged lower on Friday after the West's energy watchdog warned that output cuts announced by OPEC+ producers could exacerbate an oil supply deficit and hurt consumers. Both contracts were set to post a fourth consecutive week of gains amid easing concerns over a banking crisis last month and the surprise decision last week by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers led by Russia, a group known as OPEC+, to further cut output. OPEC on Thursday flagged downside risks to summer oil demand as part of the backdrop for the 1.16 million barrels per day (bpd) cut. In its benchmark monthly report on Friday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said the OPEC+ decision could hurt consumers and global economic recovery. The IEA said it expected global oil supply to fall by 400,000 bpd by the end of the year, citing an expected production increase of 1 million bpd from outside of OPEC+ beginning in March versus a 1.4 million bpd decline from the producer bloc. At the same time, world oil demand is set to grow by 2 million bpd in 2023 to a record 101.9 million bpd, driven in most part by stronger Chinese consumption, it said. The U.S. dollar index was trading at roughly a one-year low, after U.S. consumer and producer price data releases this week raised expectations that the Fed was approaching the end of its rate hiking cycle. The weakening greenback makes dollar-denominated oil cheaper for investors holding other currencies, boosting demand.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday made it’s intraday high of US$2048.63/oz and low of $2013.61/oz. Gold is up by 1.252% at US$2039.91/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2048-2080 keeping stop loss closing above 2080, targeting 2020-2009-1994 and 1981-1969-1950. Buy in between 2020-1959 with risk below 1959, targeting 2,034-2,050-2,058 and 2,069-2,080.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$25.96/oz and low of US$25.37/oz settled up by 1.327% at US$25.81/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (21.00), breakage above will lead to 21.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 25.40-18.30, targeting 25.00-25.90-26.30 and 26.90-27.50 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 25.90-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50; targeting 25.00-24.60-23.60-23.00 and 22.05-21.60-21.00.

Oil - WTI

Crude Ol on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$83.25/bbl, an intraday low of US$81.97/bbl, and settled down by 0.848% to close at US$82.29/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 68.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 83.30-87.60 with stop loss at 87.60; targeting 82.40-81.70-81.00 and 80.10-79.60-78.70. Buy above 82.40-78.70 with risk daily closing below 78.70; targeting 83.30-84.40-85.50 and 86.45-87.00-87.60.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.0976/EUR, a high of US$1.1067/EUR, and settled the day up by 1.002% to close at US$1.1045/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1030-1.1250, targeting 1.0990-1.0960-1.0900 and 1.0810-1.0750-1.0700 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1032. Buy above 1.0990-1.0525 with risk below 1.0525 targeting 1.1030-1.1090-1.1150 and 1.1200-1.1250.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2477/GBP, a high of US$1.2536/GBP, and settled the day up 0.304% to close at US$1.2521/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2112) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2490-1.2200 with a target of 1.2545-1.2600-1.2640 and 1.2745-1.2800 with a stop loss closing below 1.2200. Sell in between 1.2545-1.2745 with targets at 1.2490-1.2400-1.2340 and 1.2240-1.2200-1.2170 with stop loss should be 1.2745.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday made an intra‐day low of JPY132.01/USD and made an intraday high of JPY133.38/USD and settled the day down by 0.419% at JPY132.55/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (134.05), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 132.90-140.60 with risk above 140.60 targeting 131.40-130.60-130.00-129.40 and 128.90-128.00. Long positions above 132.20-128.00 with targets of 132.90 and 134.00-134.90-135.0 with stops below 130.00.