Daily Markets

• Oil prices retreated on Thursday after rising for two sessions, with investors still showing lingering concern over a possible U.S. recession and weaker oil demand. Both benchmarks rose 2% on Wednesday to their highest in more than a month as cooling U.S. inflation data spurred hopes the Federal Reserve is likely to stop hiking interest rates. Previous tightening, however, which has lifted interest rates to their highest since 2007, raised concerns that the Fed's focus on halting inflation might throttle economic growth and future oil demand in the world's biggest oil user. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 0.1% last month, below economists' expectations for a 0.2% gain, and down from a 0.4% increase in February, raising expectations the Fed is likely to stop hiking rates after a possible increase in May. The Fed's staff assessing the potential fallout of banking stress projected a "mild recession" later this year. Markets on Wednesday shrugged off a small build in U.S. crude oil stocks, attributing it in part to a congressionally-mandated release of oil from the U.S. emergency reserve and lower exports at the start of the month. Crude inventories rose by 597,000 barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 600,000-barrel drop. Gasoline and distillate stocks, meanwhile, were drawn down less than expected. The Biden administration plans to refill the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve soon, and hopes to do it at lower oil prices, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said on Wednesday. Still, the oil market was jolted higher two weeks ago after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies such as Russia agreed to curtail output. As a result, the global oil market could see tightness in the second half of 2023, which would push prices higher, said Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency

Gold – XAU

Gold on Wednesday made it’s intraday high of US$2028.20/oz and low of $2001.16/oz. Gold is up by 0.558% at US$2014.68/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 2034-2080 keeping stop loss closing above 2080, targeting 2020-2009-1994 and 1981-1969-1950. Buy in between 2020-1959 with risk below 1959, targeting 2,034-2,050-2,058 and 2,069-2,080.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$25.66/oz and low of US$25.01/oz settled up by 1.858% at US$25.48/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (21.00), breakage above will lead to 21.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 25.00-18.30, targeting 25.00-25.90-26.30 and 26.90-27.50 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 25.90-27.50 with a stop loss above 27.50; targeting 25.00-24.60-23.60-23.00 and 22.05-21.60-21.00.

Oil - WTI

Crude Ol on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$83.37/bbl, an intraday low of US$81.20/bbl, and settled up by 2.15% to close at US$83.08/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 68.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 83.30-87.60 with stop loss at 87.60; targeting 82.40-81.70-81.00 and 80.10-79.60-78.70. Buy above 82.40-78.70 with risk daily closing below 78.70; targeting 83.30-84.40-85.50 and 86.45-87.00-87.60.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.0908/EUR, a high of US$1.0999/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.742% to close at US$1.0990/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1030-1.1250, targeting 1.0990-1.0960-1.0900 and 1.0810-1.0750-1.0700 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1032. Buy above 1.0990-1.0525 with risk below 1.0525 targeting 1.1030-1.1090-1.1150 and 1.1200-1.1250.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2397/GBP, a high of US$1.2494/GBP, and settled the day up 1% to close at US$1.2483/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2112) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2400-1.2050 with a target of 1.2445 and 1.2490-1.2545 with a stop loss closing below 1.2050. Sell in between 1.2490-1.2745 with targets at 1.2400-1.2340-1.2240 and 1.2200-1.2170-1.2100 with stop loss should be 1.2745.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of JPY131.82/USD and made an intraday high of JPY133.86/USD and settled the day up by 1.123% at JPY133.59/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (134.05), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 132.90-140.60 with risk above 140.60 targeting 131.40-130.60-130.00-129.40 and 128.90-128.00. Long positions above 132.20-128.00 with targets of 132.90 and 134.00-134.90-135.0 with stops below 130.00.