Daily Markets

• Oil prices surged on Monday, posting the biggest daily rise in nearly a year, after a surprise announcement by OPEC+ to cut more production jolted markets. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies including Russia shook markets by announcing further production cuts of about 1.16 million barrels per day (bpd) on Sunday. The group, known as OPEC+, had been expected to maintain its earlier decision to cut output by 2 million bpd until December at its monthly meeting on Monday The pledges bring the total volume of cuts by OPEC+ to 3.66 million bpd according to Reuters calculations, equal to 3.7% of global demand. As a result, Goldman Sachs lowered its end-2023 production forecast for OPEC+ by 1.1 million bpd and raised its Brent price forecasts to $95 and $100 a barrel for 2023 and 2024, respectively, its analysts said in a note. Goldman Sachs estimated the output reduction could provide a 7% boost to oil prices, contributing to higher Saudi and OPEC+ oil revenues. The Biden administration said the move announced by the producers was unwise. Some analysts questioned OPEC+'s rationale for the extra production cut. Brent fell last month towards $70 a barrel, the lowest in 15 months, on concerns that a global banking crisis and rising interest rates would hit demand despite lower OPEC oil output in March due to oilfield maintenance in Angola and a halt in some of Iraq's exports. Analysts at JPMorgan said the move came later than they had expected and the slow response to weaker prices would have a limited impact on supply-demand balances and could delay the effect on prices. U.S. crude production rose in January to 12.46 million barrels per day (bpd), the highest since March 2020, Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed on Friday.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday made it’s intraday high of US$1987.49/oz and low of $1966.78/oz. Gold is down by 0.545% at US$1969.34/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1969-2020 keeping stop loss closing above 2020, targeting 1969-1950-1940 and 1933-1921-1910. Buy in between 1959-1900 with risk below 1900, targeting 1959-1969-1980 and 1990-2000-2009.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$24.15/oz and low of US23.68/oz settled up by 0.820% at US$24.08/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (21.00), breakage above will lead to 21.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 23.50-18.30, targeting 23.00 and 24.40-25.00-25.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 24.00-26.20 with a stop loss above 26.20; targeting 23.60-23.00-22.05-21.60 and 21.00-20.05-19.90.

Oil - WTI

Crude Ol on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$75.75/bbl, an intraday low of US$73.80/bbl, and settled up by 1.806% to close at US$75.73/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 68.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 80.30-83.30 with stop loss at 84.00; targeting 78.70-77.96-77.10 and 76.00-75.00-74.25. Buy above 78.70-74.25 with risk daily closing below 74.25; targeting 80.30-81.00-81.70 and 82.40-83.30-84.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0835/EUR, a high of US$1.0925/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.584% to close at US$1.0841/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0900-1.1090, targeting 1.0810-1.0750-1.0700 and 1.0650-1.0590-1.0520-1.0480 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1032. Buy above 1.0810-1.0525 with risk below 1.0525 targeting 1.0910 and 1.0950-1.0990-1.1030.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2323/GBP, a high of US$1.2422/GBP, and settled the day down 0.435% to close at US$1.2330/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2112) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2340-1.2050 with a target of 1.2400-1.2445 and 1.2490-1.2545 with a stop loss closing below 1.2050. Sell in between 1.2340-1.2545 with targets at 1.2340-1.2240-1.2200 and 1.2170-1.2100-1.2050 with stop loss should be 1.2445.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday made an intra‐day low of JPY132.56/USD and made an intraday high of JPY133.58/USD and settled the day up by 0.094% at JPY132.75/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (134.05), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 132.00-140.60 with risk above 140.60 targeting 131.40-130.60-130.00-129.40 and 128.90-128.00. Long positions above 132.00-128.00 with targets of 131.40-132.00-132.90 and 134.00-134.90-135.0 with stops below 130.00.