Daily Markets

• Oil prices fell on Thursday as the dollar strengthened, with investors keeping close tabs on developments related to the reduction of Iraqi Kurdistan oil exports. Producers have shut in or reduced output at several oilfields in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of northern Iraq following a halt to the northern export pipeline, with more outages on the horizon, company statements showed. But the Kurdistan-Iraq premium in oil prices could vanish sooner than expected, analysts from Citi said Thursday. The "changes in Iraq's domestic politics may lead to a durable political settlement very soon", said Citi, estimating that pipeline flows could grow by some 200,000 barrels per day (bpd). Meanwhile, an unexpected drop in U.S. crude oil stockpiles limited price declines, with imports sliding to a two-year low, based on U.S. Energy Information Administration. Crude inventories fell by 7.5 million barrels to 473.7 million barrels in the week to March 24, while analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll were for a rise of 100,000 barrels. However, gasoline stocks fell by 2.9 million barrels to 226.7 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations for a 1.6 million-barrel drop. While oil prices softened slightly on Thursday, they remained within the trading band seen since the start of 2023, the analysts added. Meanwhile, lower-than-targeted cuts to Russian crude production eased supply concerns. Russian crude production fell by around 300,000 bpd in the first three weeks of March, less than targeted cuts of 500,000 bpd, sources familiar with the data told Reuters.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Wednesday made it’s intraday high of US$1974.23/oz and low of $1958.67/oz. Gold is down by 0.468% at US$1964.22/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1969-2020 keeping stop loss closing above 2020, targeting 1969-1950-1940 and 1933-1921-1910. Buy in between 1959-1900 with risk below 1900, targeting 1959-1969-1980 and 1990-2000-2009.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$23.40/oz and low of US23.03/oz settled up by 0.068% at US$23.32/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (21.00), breakage above will lead to 21.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 22.60-18.30, targeting 23.00 and 24.40-25.00-25.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 23.00-26.20 with a stop loss above 26.20; targeting 22.05-21.60-21.00-20.05 and 19.90-19.50.

Oil - WTI

Crude Ol on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$74.38/bbl, an intraday low of US$72.80/bbl, and settled down by 1.100% to close at US$72.82/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 68.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 74.25-77.96 with stop loss at 77.96; targeting 73.00-72.25-71.70 and 70.90-70.30-69.75. Buy above 73.00-69.75 with risk daily closing below 69.00; targeting 74.25-75.00-76.00 and 77.10-77.96.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.0816/EUR, a high of US$1.0869/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.0082% to close at US$1.0843/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0900-1.1090, targeting 1.0750-1.0700-1.0650 and 1.0590-1.0520-1.0480 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1032. Buy above 1.0810-1.0450 with risk below 1.0450 targeting 1.0810-1.0890 and 1.0950-1.0990-1.1030.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2360/GBP, a high of US$1.2360/GBP, and settled the day down 0.226% to close at US$1.2312/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2112) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2290-1.2050 with a target of 1.2290-1.2340-1.2400-1.2445 and 1.2490-1.2545 with a stop loss closing below 1.2050. Sell in between 1.2290-1.2545 with targets at 1.2340-1.2240-1.2200 and 1.2170-1.2100-1.2050 with stop loss should be 1.2445.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of JPY130.75/USD and made an intraday high of JPY132.88/USD and settled the day up by 1.538% at JPY130.84/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (134.05), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 132.00-140.60 with risk above 140.60 targeting 131.40-130.60-130.00-129.40 and 128.90-128.00. Long positions above 132.00-128.00 with targets of 131.40-132.00-132.90 and 134.00-134.90-135.0 with stops below 130.00.