Daily Markets

• Oil prices fell on Monday to their lowest in 15 months on concerns risks in the global banking sector may cause a recession that would lead fuel demand to decline and ahead of a potential hike in U.S. interest rates this week. The slide in oil comes despite a historic deal which will see UBS, Switzerland's largest bank, buying the country's No. 2 lender Credit Suisse in an effort to stop a banking crisis from spreading. Following the announcement, the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and other major central banks pledged to enhance market liquidity and support other banks. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on March 22 despite the recent banking sector turmoil, according to most of the economists polled by Reuters. However, some executives are calling on the central bank to pause its monetary policy tightening for now but be ready to resume raising rates later. A slowdown in interest rate hikes could depress the greenback, making dollar-denominated commodities like crude oil more affordable for holders of other currencies. A ministerial committee of OPEC and producer allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, is set to meet on April 3, with a full ministerial meeting planned for June 4. The organization had agreed in October to cut oil production targets by 2 million barrels per day until the end of 2023. Separately, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) cut its forecasts for Brent crude after prices plunged on banking and recession fears. The investment bank is now expecting Brent to average $94 a barrel in the next 12 months, and $97 in the second half of 2024, down from $100 previously.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday made it’s intraday high of US$1989.27/oz and low of $1918.15/oz. Gold is up by 3.617% at US$1989.18/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1990-2030 keeping stop loss closing above 2030, targeting 1980-1969-1959-1950 and 1940-1933-1921. Buy in between 1980-1900 with risk below 1900, targeting 1990-2000-2009 and 2022-2035.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$22.59/oz and low of US21.65/oz settled down by 0.399% at US$22.59/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (21.00), breakage above will lead to 21.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 21.90-18.30, targeting 22.60-23.00 and 24.40-25.00-25.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 22.60-26.20 with a stop loss above 26.20; targeting 22.05-21.60-21.00-20.05 and 19.90-19.50.

Oil - WTI

Crude Ol on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$69.80/bbl, an intraday low of US$69.80/bbl, and settled down by 2.795% to close at US$66.52/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 68.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 65.80-71.00 with stop loss at 71.00; targeting 65.00-64.10-63.40 and 62.30-61.50. Buy above 65.00-61.50 with risk daily closing below 61.50; targeting 65.80-67.10-68.00 and 69.90-70.30-70.90.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0607/EUR, a high of US$1.0684/EUR, and settled the day down by 0511% to close at US$1.0666/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0700-1.0990, targeting 1.0650-1.0590-1.0520 and 1.0480-1.0450-1.0400 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1032. Buy above 1.0650-1.0450 with risk below 1.0450 targeting 1.0700-1.0750-1.0810-1.0890 and 1.0950-1.0990-1.10320.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2101/GBP, a high of US$1.2199/GBP, and settled the day up 0.570% to close at US$1.2178/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2112) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2100-1.1750 with a target of 1.2120-1.2170-1.2290 and 1.2340-1.2400-1.2440 with a stop loss closing below 1.1650. Sell in between 1.2050-1.2650 with targets at 1.1820 and 1.1900-1.1820-1.1750 and 1.1650-1.1600 with stop loss should be 1.2445.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday made an intra‐day low of JPY131.54/USD and made an intraday high of JPY133.65/USD and settled the day down by 0.192% at JPY131.77/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (134.05), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 131.10-140.60 with risk above 140.60 targeting 130.60-130.00-129.40 and 128.90-128.00. Long positions above 130.60-128.00 with targets of 131.40-132.00-132.90 and 134.00-134.90-135.50 with stops below 130.00.