Daily Markets

• Oil prices rose on Wednesday as a drop to three-month lows attracted some bargain buying, while optimism over Chinese demand, following strong economic data and a hike in the OPEC’s outlook for the country, also aided sentiment. But crude markets were still nursing steep losses this week, as fears of a potential banking crisis in the U.S. drove up concerns that a recession could crimp oil demand this year. The greenback sank against a basket of currencies as overall U.S. consumer inflation eased as expected in February. Ructions in the banking system also saw markets question whether the Fed will have enough economic headroom to remain hawkish. Data on Wednesday showed that Chinese industrial production rose slightly less than expected in February. But strong retail sales and higher-than-expected fixed asset investment showed that certain facets of the economy were on a steady path towards recovery. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised its forecast for growth in Chinese oil demand this year, citing a relaxation in the country’s anti-COVID policies. The OPEC expects China to drive global oil demand to record highs this year. But the cartel also warned that slowing growth in the rest of the globe could largely offset a recovery in China. Oil prices plummeted over the past two sessions as fears of a U.S. recession were exacerbated by the collapse of several regional banks. Stronger-than-expected U.S. core consumer inflation for February pointed to more near-term pressure on the economy, and could also keep the Federal Reserve hawkish despite a potential banking crisis. Concerns over rising interest rates and slowing economic growth have been the biggest headwinds to oil prices this year, with markets fearing a slowdown in demand as monetary conditions tighten and as major economies grapple with high inflation. Signs of a potential build in U.S. oil inventories over the past week also presented potential headwinds to oil prices, as industry data showed U.S. crude inventories grew more than expected in the week to March 10. The reading usually heralds a similar trend in official data, which is expected to show a build of 1.18 million barrels later in the day.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Tuesday made it’s intraday high of US$1914.04/oz and low of $1895.25/oz. Gold is down by 0.502% at US$1903.77/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1915-1950 keeping stop loss closing above 1950, targeting 1894-1882-1874 and 1860-1844-1832. Buy in between 1900-1832 with risk below 1832, targeting 1915-1929-1940 and 1950-1959.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$21.96/oz and low of US21.43/oz settled down by 0.390% at US$21.67/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (21.00), breakage above will lead to 21.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 21.60-18.30, targeting 21.90-22.10-23.00 and 24.40-25.00-25.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 22.10-26.20 with a stop loss above 26.20; targeting 21.60-21.00-20.05 and 19.90-19.50.

Oil - WTI

Crude Ol on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$74.97/bbl, an intraday low of US$70.90/bbl, and settled down by 4.19% to close at US$74.61/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 200DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 68.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 73.00-81.40 with stop loss at 81.40; targeting 74.00-73.10-72.40 and 71.50-71.00. Buy above 72.00-69.60 with risk daily closing below 69.60; targeting 73.00-73.60-75.00 and 75.90-77.00-78.10.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.0678/EUR, a high of US$1.0749/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.0419% to close at US$1.0731/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0750-1.1032, targeting 1.0700-1.0590-1.0520 and 1.0480-1.0450-1.0400 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1032. Buy above 1.0700-1.0450 with risk below 1.0450 targeting 1.0750-1.0810-1.0890 and 1.0950-1.0990-1.10320..

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2045/GBP, a high of US$1.2199/GBP, and settled the day up 0.797% to close at US$1.2181/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2112) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2050-1.1750 with a target of 1.2120-1.2170-1.2290 and 1.2340-1.2400-1.2440 with a stop loss closing below 1.1650. Sell in between 1.2010-1.2650 with targets at 1.1820 and 1.1900-1.1820-1.1750 and 1.1650-1.1600 with stop loss should be 1.2445.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made an intra‐day low of JPY133.01/USD and made an intraday high of JPY134.89/USD and settled the day down by 0.789% at JPY134.01/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (134.05), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 134.90-140.60 with risk above 140.60 targeting 133.90 and 132.90-132.00-131.60. Long positions above 133.90-131.20 with targets of 138.10-139.00 and 140.10-140.60 with stops below 130.00.