Daily Markets

• Oil prices kept to a tight range on Thursday, nursing two days of steep losses as middling demand cues from China and hawkish signals on U.S. interest rates brewed increasing concerns over more headwinds to crude consumption this year. Chinese consumer inflation read much weaker than expected for February, while a sharper-than-expected drop in producer prices indicated that manufacturing activity - usually a bellwether for the economy - was running well below full capacity. The reading came on the heels of data that showed China’s oil imports shrank during the January-February period, despite the lifting of anti-COVID restrictions. The weak readings, coupled with a softer-than-expected GDP target for 2023, hampered bets that an economic rebound in China will drive crude demand to record highs this year. A potential showdown between the U.S. and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also kept oil markets on their toes, as a group of bipartisan U.S. Senators said they reintroduced a bill to pressure the cartel into stopping collusion over oil production and prices. The bill, if passed, could greatly reduce the influence the cartel has over oil prices. Crude prices fell sharply after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that U.S. interest rates are likely to rise more than market expectations, following recent stickiness in inflation. His comments boosted the dollar, and brewed increasing concerns that high interest rates will stymie economic growth and dent crude demand this year. The dollar remained pinned at a three-month high on Thursday, keeping oil expensive for international buyers and potentially further hurting demand. Fears of the Fed saw markets largely look past data showing U.S. crude inventories shrank for the first time in 10 weeks. This, coupled with comments from major oil executives that U.S. production had likely peaked, pointed to some tighter supply in the near-term. Oil prices are trading lower for the year, amid growing concerns that a global recession will crimp crude demand. Traders have also wound down bets on a swift recovery in Chinese demand, following a swathe of weak economic readings from the country.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday made it’s intraday high of US$1824.16/oz and low of $1809.31/oz. Gold is up by 0.0270% at US$1813.63/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1823-1900 keeping stop loss closing above 1900, targeting 1802-1790-1774. Buy in between 1808-1761 with risk below 1761, targeting 1844 and 1853-1874-1887.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$20.21/oz and low of US19.90/oz settled down by 0.279% at US$20.01/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (21.00), breakage above will lead to 21.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 20.00-18.30, targeting 20.90-22.10-23.00 and 24.40-25.00-25.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 20.60-26.20 with a stop loss above 26.20; targeting 20.05-19.90 and 19.50-19.01.

Oil - WTI

Crude Ol on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$77.80/bbl, an intraday low of US$76.19/bbl, and settled down by 1.019% to close at US$76.56/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 78.10-82.40 with stop loss at 82.40; targeting 77.00-75.10 and 74.00-73.10-72.40. Buy above 77.10-72.40 with risk daily closing below 72.40; targeting 78.10-79.55-80.30-81.00 and 81.90-82.50.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.0523/EUR, a high of US$1.0573/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.0549% to close at US$1.0542/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0590-1.0810, targeting 1.0520-1.0480 and 1.0450-1.0400 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0810. Buy above 1.0520-1.0450 with risk below 1.0450 targeting 1.0550-1.0590-1.0650 and 1.0690-1.0750-1.0810.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1802/GBP, a high of US$1.1858/GBP, and settled the day up 0.146% to close at US$1.1842/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2112) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.1820-1.1750 with a target of 1.1900-1.2010-1.2090 and 1.2120-1.2170-1.2290 with a stop loss closing below 1.1650. Sell in between 1.1900-1.2650 with targets at 1.1820 and 1.1750- 1.1650-1.1600 with stop loss should be 1.2445.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of JPY136.47/USD and made an intraday high of JPY137.90/USD and settled the day up by 0.131% at JPY137.32/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (134.05), which is major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to buy as it has given a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 138.10-140.60 with risk above 140.60 targeting 135.50-134.90-133.90 and 132.90-132.00-131.60. Long positions above 136.20-131.20 with targets of 138.10-139.00 and 140.10-140.60 with stops below 130.00.