Daily Markets

• Oil prices opened lower on Monday after China set a lower-than-expected target for economic growth this year at around 5%, and as investors cautiously awaited U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony this week. China's closely watched growth outlook, announced on Sunday, was lower than its 5.5% gross domestic product (GDP) growth target last year. GDP grew last year by just 3%. Policy sources had told Reuters a range as high as 6% could be set for 2023. Premier Li Keqiang said on Sunday the foundation for stable growth in China needed to be consolidated, insufficient demand remained a pronounced problem, and the expectations of private investors and businesses were unstable. However, analysts at UBS Investment Bank upgraded their forecasts for China's GDP growth to 5.4% for 2023 and to 5.2% for 2024 from 4.9% and 4.8% respectively. Both crude benchmarks settled more than $1 higher on Friday after two sources told Reuters a report that the United Arab Emirates was considering leaving OPEC was inaccurate. Hari said the rebound was bigger than the slump on the original news and put crude prices in "overbought territory, so (it's) hardly surprising that prices are correcting downwards this morning". At the same time, oil prices are likely to be impacted by rate hikes across the world as global central banks tighten policy over fears of increasing inflation. Traders have started factoring in rate hikes across the world, but are hoping for smaller increases than last year. The United States Federal Reserve's Chair Jerome Powell will testify to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, where he will likely be quizzed on whether larger hikes are needed in the world's largest oil consuming country. The United States' future rate hikes are also likely to depend on what the February payrolls report reveals on Friday, followed by the February inflation report due next week. Over the weekend, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said it was "very likely" they would raise interest rates this month to keep a lid on inflation.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday made it’s intraday high of US$1856.69/oz and low of $1835.49/oz. Gold is up by 1.135% at US$1856.36/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1860-1900 keeping stop loss closing above 1900, targeting 1844-1830-1823 and 1802-1790-1774. Buy in between 1830-1761 with risk below 1761, targeting 1844 and 1853-1874-1887.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$21.26/oz and low of US21.26/oz settled up by 0.476% at US$21.25/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (21.00), breakage above will lead to 21.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 20.60-18.30, targeting 22.10-23.00 and 24.40-25.00-25.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 21.10-26.20 with stop loss above 26.20; targeting 20.70-19.90 and 19.50-19.01.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$79.91/bbl, an intraday low of US$75.89/bbl, and settled up by 2.55% to close at US$79.89/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 79.55-82.40 with stop loss at 82.40; targeting 78.10-77.00-75.10 and 74.00-73.10-72.40. Buy above 78.10-72.40 with risk daily closing below 72.40; targeting 79.55-80.30-81.00 and 81.90-82.50.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0587/EUR, a high of US$1.0637/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.362% to close at US$1.0634/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0650-1.0810, targeting 1.0520-1.0480 and 1.0450-1.0400 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0810. Buy above 1.0590-1.0450 with risk below 1.0450 targeting 1.0550-1.0590-1.0650 and 1.0690-1.0750-1.0810.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1938/GBP, a high of US$1.2048/GBP, and settled the day up 0.851% to close at US$1.2043/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.21) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2010-1.1650 with a target of 1.2090-1.2120 and 1.2170-1.2290- 1.2390 with a stop loss closing below 1.1650. Sell in between 1.2060-1.2650 with targets at 1.2010-1.1900-1.1820 and 1.1750- 1.1650-1.1600 with stop loss should be 1.2445.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday made an intra‐day low of JPY135.73/USD and made an intraday high of JPY136.76/USD and settled the day down by 0.667% at JPY135.83/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 136.20-140.60 with risk above 140.60 targeting 135.50-134.90-133.90 and 132.90-132.00-131.60. Long positions above 135.50-131.20 with targets of 136.50-138.10-139.00 and 140.10-140.60 with stops below 130.00.