Daily Markets

• Oil prices kept to a tight range on Thursday as traders weighed the prospect of a strong recovery in Chinese demand against the possibility that rising interest rates and elevated inflation will crimp economic activity this year. Crude markets were riding two straight sessions of strong gains, as Chinese business activity data pointed to a robust economic recovery in the world’s largest oil importer. Activity expanded at its fastest pace in over a decade in February, data showed on Wednesday. But this optimism was somewhat tempered by rising inflation indicators in the U.S. and the euro zone, which could see the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank keep interest rates higher for longer. Markets were also awaiting China’s “two sessions” meeting of top government officials, which begins this Saturday, for any potential policy changes in the world’s largest oil importer. A recovery in China, after it relaxed most anti-COVID measures in January, is forecast to drive oil demand to record highs this year. But oil prices are still trading down so far for the year, as fears of slowing economic growth largely offset hopes for a recovery in Chinese demand. Fears that tight financial conditions will dent crude demand crept back into markets on Wednesday, as U.S. manufacturing prices data unexpectedly grew in February. German inflation also read higher than expected for the month, heralding a similar trend from euro zone inflation due later in the day. The trend of higher inflation is likely to invite more hawkish measures from major central banks, which in turn is expected to dent economic activity. This could have negative implications for crude demand. Mixed U.S. inventory data also brewed some uncertainty over crude supply in the world’s largest oil consumer. While inventories rose for a tenth consecutive week, gasoline stockpiles fell, while U.S. oil exports reached a record high. Still, with U.S. inventories at their highest level since May 2021, markets are positioning for a potential supply glut in the country, which is expected to limit any major upside in oil prices..

Gold – XAU

Gold on Wednesday made it’s intraday high of US$1838.41/oz and low of $1830.97/oz. Gold is up by 0.542% at US$1832.51/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1840-1874 keeping stop loss closing above 1874, targeting 1830-1823-1802 and 1790-1774-1761. Buy in between 1830-1761 with risk below 1761, targeting 1844 and 1853-1874-1887.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$21.16/oz and low of US20.97/oz settled down by 0.478% at US$20.97/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (21.00), breakage above will lead to 21.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 21.10-18.30, targeting 22.10-23.00 and 24.40-25.00-25.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 23.10-26.20 with stop loss above 26.20; targeting 20.70-19.90 and 19.50-19.01.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$77.87/bbl, an intraday low of US$76.16/bbl, and settled up by 1.199% to close at US$77.76/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 77.90-80.40 with stop loss at 80.40; targeting 75.10-74.00-73.10 and 72.40-71.90-71.00. Buy above 76.10-71.20 with risk daily closing below 71.20; targeting 77.00-78.10 and 78.95-79.65-80.30.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.0564/EUR, a high of US$1.0690/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.863% to close at US$1.0665/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0590-1.0810, targeting 1.0520-1.0480 and 1.0450-1.0400 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0810. Buy above 1.0550-1.0450 with risk below 1.0450 targeting 1.0550-1.0590-1.0650 and 1.0690-1.0750-1.0810.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1964/GBP, a high of US$1.2088/GBP, and settled the day up 0.077% to close at US$1.2028/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.21) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2010-1.1650 with a target of 1.2090-1.2120 and 1.2170-1.2290- 1.2390 with a stop loss closing below 1.1650. Sell in between 1.2060-1.2650 with targets at 1.2010-1.1900-1.1820 and 1.1750- 1.1650-1.1600 with stop loss should be 1.2445.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of JPY135.25/USD and made an intraday high of JPY136.46/USD and settled the day up by 0.0088% at JPY136.14/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 136.50-140.60 with risk above 140.60 targeting 135.50-134.90-133.90 and 132.90-132.00-131.60. Long positions above 135.50-131.20 with targets of 136.50-138.10-139.00 and 140.10-140.60 with stops below 130.00.