Daily Markets

• Oil prices moved in a small range on Tuesday as traders awaited more cues from Chinese and U.S. business activity readings due this week, although fears of rising interest rates and slowing economic growth saw markets nursing steep losses. Crude markets cut short a three-day gaining spree on Monday as markets reassessed their outlook for economic growth this year, following a slew of strong inflation readings and hawkish central bank signals last week. Focus this week is largely on Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) readings from China and the U.S. for February. Business activity in the world’s largest oil importer is forecast to have improved from January, after it relaxed most anti-COVID measures earlier this year. But the country’s vast manufacturing sector is still expected to remain close to contraction territory, indicating that a swift economic rebound may not be on the cards. While a recovery in China is expected to drive oil demand to record highs this year, markets remain uncertain over the timing of such a rebound, given that recent indicators have painted a mixed picture of the economy. PMI indicators from the U.S. are also due this week, and are expected to show that manufacturing activity remained in contraction territory through February, offsetting strength in the service sector. Fears of a slowdown in the world’s largest oil consumer have chipped away at oil prices in recent weeks, as other indicators also showed a potential supply glut in the country. The oil market’s biggest source of anxiety has been rising U.S. interest rates, as hotter-than-expected inflation in the country gave the Fed more impetus to keep tightening monetary policy. Tighter monetary conditions are expected to weigh on economic activity later this year, which in turn could crimp global crude demand and offset a recovery in China. Fears of the Fed have also seen markets largely look past some tightening in global supply, as Russia slashed production in response to Western price caps.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday made it’s intraday high of US$1820.04/oz and low of $1806.56/oz. Gold is up by 0.351% at US$1817.14/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1810-1874 keeping stop loss closing above 1874, targeting 1802 and 1790-1774-1761. Buy in between 1802-1761 with risk below 1761, targeting 1815-1830-1844 and 1853-1874-1887.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$20.83/oz and low of US20.54/oz settled down by 1.473% at US$20.61/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (21.00), breakage above will lead to 21.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 20.60-18.00, targeting 21.10-22.10-23.00 and 24.40-25.00-25.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 21.10-26.20 with stop loss above 26.20; targeting 20.70-19.90 and 19.50-19.01.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$76.83/bbl, an intraday low of US$75.02/bbl, and settled down by 0.988% to close at US$75.75/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 77.00-80.40 with stop loss at 80.40; targeting 75.10-74.00-73.10 and 72.40-71.90-71.00. Buy above 75.10-71.20 with risk daily closing below 71.20; targeting 77.00-78.10 and 78.95-79.65-80.30.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.0532/EUR, a high of US$1.0619/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.596% to close at US$1.0608/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0590-1.0810, targeting 1.0520-1.0480 and 1.0450-1.0400 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0810. Buy above 1.0550-1.0450 with risk below 1.0450 targeting 1.0550-1.0590-1.0650 and 1.0690-1.0750-1.0810.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1921/GBP, a high of US$1.2065/GBP, and settled the day up 0.949% to close at US$1.2062/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.21) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.1900-1.1650 with a target of 1.2010-1.2090-1.1.2120 and 1.2170-1.2290- 1.2390 with a stop loss closing below 1.1650. Sell in between 1.2010-1.2650 with targets at 1.1900-1.1820-1.1750 and 1.1650-1.1600 with stop loss should be 1.2445.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made an intra‐day low of JPY135.91/USD and made an intraday high of JPY136.55/USD and settled the day down by 0.180% at JPY136.15/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 136.50-140.60 with risk above 140.60 targeting 135.50-134.90-133.90 and 132.90-132.00-131.60. Long positions above 135.50-131.20 with targets of 136.50-138.10-139.00 and 140.10-140.60 with stops below 130.00.